- NY Fed: One-year ahead expected inflation at 4.1% vs 4.4% in April
- Macron: Ukranian counter-offensive started and was meticulously planned
- BOE's Mann: UK data and surveys have remained positive since May's BOE forecasts
- US May Federal budget deficit $240 billion vs $236 billion expected
- U.S. Treasury auctions off $32 billion in 10 year notes at a high yield of 3.791%
- Sources:FTC to file injunction to block Microsoft's Activision deal
- US sells 3-year notes at 4.202% vs 4.200%
- Goldman Sachs: FOMC likely to keep rates unchanged; dollar depreciation expected later
Markets:
- Gold down $3 to $1958
- US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 3.73%
- Bitcoin down 2.3% to $25,833
- WTI crude oil down 3.10 to $67.07
- S&P 500 up 0.8% and Nasdaq up 1.5%
- AUD leads, CHF lags
In theory today was a prep day because the next three US trading days feature: CPI, FOMC and retail sales. But it wasn't exactly quiet as stocks started flat but steadily gathered momentum. On the other side was the oil market, which wilted to the lowest since May 4.
It wasn't quiet in FX either with the US dollar falling in early European trading only to give it all back later. The fixed income market helped to fuel that as UK gilt yields hit a cycle high. That sent cable to 1.2600 only for Treasury yields to later rise and pull the pair back to 1.2500.
Yet in bonds that move also faded and yields finished the day lower, ahead of what will surely be a y/y drop in US inflation tomorrow.
Commodity currencies are mostly flat and the loonie was able to impressively shrug off the drop in oil prices. The risk though is that a delayed reaction is coming once we get through this week's data.
