- Fed's Waller: Increasingly confident policy is well-positioned to slow economy
- US November consumer confidence 102.0 vs 101.0 expected
- US November Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index -5 vs 3 estimate
- Fed's Bowman says she favors hiking rates if progress on inflation stalls
- Charlie Munger dead at 99
- Fed's Williams: Encouraging to see decline in inflation pressure
- US sells 7-year notes at 4.399% vs 4.378% WI
- Fed's Goolsbee: Overall, we have made good progress on inflation
- US Sept Case-Shiller 20-city home price index +0.7% m/m vs +0.8% expected
- OPEC+ talks difficult, further delay in meeting possible - report
- BOE's Haskel: Jobs market tightness means higher rates for longer
Markets:
- Gold up $26 to $2040
- WTI crude oil up $1.54 to $76.40
- US 10-year yields down 6 bps to 4.32%
- S&P 500 up 0.1%
- JPY leads, USD lags
The US dollar slumped on Tuesday after Fed Governor Chris Waller made a surprise turn, saying there are 'good arguments that if inflation continues falling for several more months that you could lower the policy rate'. It's the first time a Fed official has put rate cuts on the table and it's especially surprising coming from the normally-hawkish Waller.
Yields fell after the comment and dragged the dollar down with it. EUR/USD eventually ticked above 1.1000 while USD/JPY was beaten 120 pips lower to 147.46. The move was across-the-board selling in the dollar that only abated after a surprisingly weak 7-year Treasury auction.
In terms of economic data, the numbers were a mixed bag big consumer confidence as positive and that was backed up by varying reports of positive Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping, though the long history of those claims is dubious.
Oil was in the spotlight once again and it initially fell on a report saying that OPEC was struggling to find consensus and the meeting could be delayed again. However there was an improbable comeback and it finished strongly higher. We continue to await any real news around OPEC+ but the disputes seem to be centered around African production, which could hardly be a deal-breaker. CAD was slightly boosted by oil and hit an 8-week high.
