- US November ISM manufacturing survey 48.4 vs 47.5 expected
- US November final S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 48.8 prelim
- Fed's Waller speech: 'I lean towards supporting a cut in December'
- Waller Q&A: Average inflation target framework "blew up" very quickly
- Sad day for markets: Art Cashin dead at 83
- Fed's Bostic: Not going into December meeting with the sense that outcome preordained
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow +3.2% vs +2.7% prior
- US October construction spending +0.4% vs +0.2% expected
- S&P Global Canada November manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.1 prior
- Shares of SMCI jump 20% after the company says it won't restate financials
- ECB's Rehn: There are reasons to continue cutting rates in December
- French PM Barnier to use special powers to adopt social security budget bill
Markets:
- S&P 500 up 0.2%, Nasdaq up 1.0%
- WTI crude oil up 15-cents to $68.15
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.20%
- Gold down $16 to $2637
- JPY leads, EUR lags
The FX market swung towards US dollar strength during New York trade and then slowly gave it all back in the latter half of the session. Euro selling accelerated through 1.05 as political dysfunction continues in France, and the likelihood of a no-confidence vote in Barnier on Wednesday. French spreads widened and the pair fell as low as 1.0461 but recovered back to the big figure last.
It was a similar round trip on most fronts as the dollar gained on some of the BRICS talk (though I think that's a stretch) and the reversal of month-end flows. Initially the dollar was helped by rising Treasury yields but bonds rallied later and that weighed particularly heavily on USD/JPY, which continues to slide in a move that's under-appreciated.
The dollar fell further on the Waller headlines but recovered as the text of his speech was more-balanced and data focused than it first seemed. USD/JPY touched 149.09 at the lows, which is the worst since October 20 and down 600 pips in two weeks.
Overall, I'm not sure we learned much today as the market continues to mull Trump, Republican priorities and the strength of the economy. Fed pricing for a cut this month is at 70%, which sounds about right but it's a big week for economic data and that will swing, including on JOLTS tomorrow.
