- US February ISM manufacturing 47.8 vs 49.5 expected
- US January construction spending -0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- US February UMich final consumer sentiment 76.9 vs 79.6 expected
- US Feburary S&P Global final manfacturing PMI 52.2 vs 51.5 prelim
- Fed's Barkin: Yesterday was a high inflation report
- Fed's Kugler: Signs firms are adjusting prices slower, bolstering disinflation confidence
- Fed's Goolsbee: Housing inflation is the thing that's really been weird
- The Fed's Daly: No comments on monetary policy
- Comments from Waller and Logan focus on balance sheet
- Canada February S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 48.3 prior
- BOE's Pill: My baseline is that the time for cutting rates is some ways off
- Martin Schlegel a likely candidate to replace Swiss National Bank's Jordan
- Goldman Sachs pushes back first ECB rate cut call to June from April previously
Markets:
- Gold up $40 to $2083
- US 10-year yields down 6.8 bps to 4.18%
- WTI crude oil up $1.51 to $79.78
- S&P 500 up 0.8%, Nasdaq up 1.1%
- Bitcoin up 2.1% to $62,750
- AUD leads, JPY lags
Happy Friday. It certainly was for the market as a trio of soft second-tier US economic data releases combined to add a dose of dovishness to the market and send the Nasdaq above the 2021 high.
Before the data, some worry was creeping into the market and the US dollar was bid. Comments from Barkin struck a hawkish note and with Waller on the schedule after him, there was some worry about a hawkish turn. Instead, the ISM manufacturing, construction spending and final UMich numbers were all soft and the dollar sank. Then Waller limited his comments to the balance sheet and Goolsbee stayed dovish.
US 10-year Treasury yields fell 12 bps from the highs and broke the important 4.20% level. With that, I would have expect more US dollar selling but that might have been capped by turn-of-the-calendar or US equity buying. The euro and pound managed to recoup yesterday's declines while the Australian dollar edged modestly above yesterday's highs before stalling.
USD/JPY declined after the data and finished the week just above 150.00 in what's going to be an intriguing month for the pair.
Gold closed at the highest level on record, at least spot gold did (futures were close). Oil got above $80 only to finish just below in what was a strong day for commodities.
Bitcoin was lackluster early despite the Nasdaq bid but caught up late to finish within striking distance of the highs of the week. Eyes will be on BTC on the weekend, where it's generally languished since the ETFs emerged.
