- US Q1 advance GDP -1.4% vs +1.1% expected
- US initial jobs claims 180K versus 180K estimate
- Germany April preliminary HICP +7.8% vs +7.6% y/y expected
- EU oil ban on Russia is imminent after Germany drops opposition - report
- Amazon earnings not good. Loss of -$7.56 vs gain of $8.36
- Two large explosions reported in Kyiv
- U.S. Treasury auctions off $44 billion of 7 year notes at high yield of 2.908%
- KC Fed manufacturing index 28 vs 46 prior
- Guangzhou orders mass testing and grounds flights after covid cases found at airport
Markets:
- Gold up $9 to $1895
- WTI crude oil up $3.30 to $105.32
- US 10-year yields +1.6 bps to 2.83%
- S&P 500 up 103 points or 2.5% to 4287
- USD leads, JPY lags
US GDP missed badly but the market was largely forgiving as it was mostly driven by trade with some help from inventories. Government spending was also soft but it was on softer defense spending and that won't last.
The bigger move on the GDP report might have been stocks and the risk trade on the thinking that the Fed could be marginally less hawkish as it begins to fret about growth. That could change with tomorrow's PCE report but that thinking helped to boost stocks.
On that front it was a wild ride. Futures were 1.2% higher but that optimism didn't last and the gains evaporated before lunchtime. But the dip buyers emerged and there was a huge rally into the close. Aside from the JPY weakness -- which has taken on a life of its own -- the FX market wasn't particularly impressed with stocks as both AUD/USD and NZD/USD fell significantly on the day.
Some of that is feedback from the broad dollar rally due to the breakdowns in JPY, EUR and GBP. There's also some month-end demand for dollars going through. Over in Europe, it sounds like a ban on Russian oil is coming and that's another reason to downgrade eurozone GDP forecasts for whenever it's phased in.
The euro chopped sideways and the pound bounced a bit after breaking down to 1.2412 but a modest bounce after such a big fall isn't particularly inspiring.
