Markets:

  • Gold down $19 to $2650
  • US 10-year yields down 3.6 bps to 3.75%
  • WTI crude oil up 75-cents to $68.41
  • S&P 500 down 7 points to 5738
  • JPY leads, CAD lags

It's tough to separate what was driven by quarter-end flows and what was driven by fundamentals. There was certainly some US dollar selling after Friday's PCE report and the delivery of the China rate cut. However that 40-pip move was erased later. Some of that may have been due to Middle East worries but the conflict hasn't been much of a market mover lately and if that was the driver you would expect more gains in gold and oil.

One move that was clearly fundamental was the choice of a new PM in Japan as the choice of Ishiba was met with a hawkish response leading to a huge rally in the yen and a 6% dive in Nikkei futures. Clearly the market was leaning towards the dovish Takaichi, particularly after the first round of votes.

USD/JPY was crunched on the news and continued to fall in US trading and is on track to close at the lows of the day/week at 142.11. The pair got some help from fixed income as the recent selling reversed by 2-6 bps in a front-end led flattener pulled down by the PCE report as well.

AUD and NZD are continuing to outperform on China optimism and we will note that Chinese markets are open Monday then closed for the rest of next week. We could get more stimulus announcements before then, and the market could also be pricing that in, so silence could be a downside risks. But spare a moment for the AUD/USD chart, as it looks to be breaking above a series of tops.

It was a lively week, have a great weekend. Next week we get another edition of non-farm payrolls.

Forex news wrap Sept 27