- US February non-farm payrolls +275K vs +200K expected
- Canada February employment change 40.7K versus 20.0K estimate
- ECB sources report: Policymakers 'overwhelmingly' favor June for first rate cut
- Fed's Williams: Inflation expectations have come down quite a bit
- US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count -2
- New York Fed Nowcast of Q1 GDP growth rises to 2.14% from 2.12% previously
- Canada Q4 capacity utilization rate 78.7% versus 79.7% last quarter
Markets:
- Gold up $18 to $2177
- US 10-year yields down 1.3 bps to 4.08%
- WTI crude oil down $1.07 to $77.86
- S&P 500 down 33 points, or 0.6%, to 5123
- JPY leads, CAD lags
I'm always leery of a pre-NFP front run and today is an example of why. The US dollar was soft and bonds bid for 24 hours before the report. When the data rolled out it was dovish. Yes, the headline beat but unemployment rose, revisions were much lower and wage growth was surprisingly soft. The initial reaction was for more USD selling but that was the extreme of the day. In the hours that followed the dollar weakness slowly reversed, with the help of a weak stock market.
The euro climbed up to 1.0980 on the NFP headlines but slowly slid back to 1.0930, which is slightly before the data was released. It didn't get any help from the leak saying that only a few ECB members want to cut in April.
The pound was more resilient as it finished up 50 pips on the day but still gave back 50 pips from the highs in what could have been its strongest day since December. Still, it's the best close of the year for the pond and breaks months of consolidation. That will be something to watch in the week ahead.
USD/JPY continues to be sold on BOJ hike speculation. That will be a key topic next week ahead of the March 19 decision as the leaks continue to roll in.
USD/CAD was a tough trade today. The Canadian jobs report was strong but so much is being driven by population growth that the market isn't impressed. Later as the risk trade and oil stumbled, so did the loonie, erasing all the jobs moves and more.
Gold hit another all-time high but as it neared $2200, some aggressive selling hit. The turn in gold coincided with heavy profit taking in some high-flying stocks, particularly chipmakers with NVDA falling to $875 at the close from a record high of $974.
