- Fed's Goolsbee: The next question will be 'how long are we going to hold at these levels'
- ECB's Lagarde: Recent indicators point to further weakness in the third quarter
- ECB's Schnabel: Activity in the eurozone is clearly moderating
- Dallas Fed September manufacturing index -18.1 vs -17.2 prior
- Moody's warns that US government shutdown would be 'credit negative'
- August Chicago Fed US national activity index -0.16 vs +0.12 prior
- China vice premier: In meeting with EU agreed to further opening up in financial services
- Germany's Scholz: We must massively expand activities in housing construction
Markets:
- Gold down $10 to $1915
- WTI crude oil down $0.10 to $89.94
- US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.54%
- S&P 500 up 0.45%
- CAD leads, EUR lags
The bond market continues to wilt and that helped USD/JPY break last week's highs and continue up to 148.97. It's probably no coincidence that the pair stopped just ahead of the big figure as the market treads carefully around intervention. That said, the move was well-justified with US long-dated yields moving up dramatically again and hitting new cycle highs.
That same dynamic led to a broad USD bid and a fall in EUR/USD though 1.06. It was trading at 1.0640 at the start of US trading but fell to 1.0575 before rebounding close to the figure late. Comments from Lagarde underscored the ongoing slowdown in the economy and the likelihood that the next move in rates will be lower.
Cable also sagged but to a lesser extent. There was some selling into the London fix as it hit 1.2195 before bouncing back above the figure.
Economic news overall wasn't market moving. The bond market cued off of the rise in bund yields and then ran with it as US 10s and 30s made new cycle highs. Notably, the front end remains pinned as the market gets material tightening from long-dated rates.
CAD was able to make gains against the US dollar despite a back-and-forth day for oil. Crude rose early but gave it back and turned lower and eventually finished flat. Still, every day with oil at $90 is good for Canadian terms of trade and that was the message from the market.
Looking ahead, AUD sagged on Chinese property pressure to start the week and eyes will be on that sector again in the hours ahead.
