- Fed's Powell: It is appropriate to be moving more quickly and front-end loading
- Fed's Daly: We will likely be raising rates by 50 bps at a couple of Fed meetings
- April Philly Fed 17.6 vs 21.0 expected
- US initial jobless claims 184K versus 180K estimate
- ECB's Lagarde: Risks to growth are skewed to the downside
- Bank of England Bailey: We are in a period of unprecedentedly large shocks
- BOE's Bailey: We're walking a tight line between inflation and effects of income shock
- Feds Bullard: The Fed is behind the curve
- Chicago Fed president Evans to retire from the Fed in early 2023
- Eurozone April flash consumer confidence -16.9 vs -20.0 expected
- BOE's Mann: By doing keeping inflation anchored now, less tightening required later
- BOE's Mann: It's premature to use the term 'stagflation'
Markets:
- S&P 500 down 69 points to 4386
- US 10-year yields up 7 bps to 2.91%
- WTI crude oil up $1.98 to $104.14
- Gold down $6 to $1951
- USD leads, NZD lags
The mood was upbeat in early trading but yields began to creep up on a combination of momentum and Fedspeak. There was no clear catalyst but the market is now fully priced for three 50 bps hikes.
Interestingly, the FX market and commodity market isn't nearly as concerned about what should be real economy concerns. There were sympathetic moves down in commodity currencies as equities unwound though, led by the Aussie and kiwi. Cable has been risk sensitive but even with the rout, it held above 1.30 again.
I tend to think that earnings angst is a big part of the price action. The NFLX rout is fresh in everyone's mind and TSLA climbing only 3% despite a blockbuster report isn't exactly comfort. It all points to an ugly risk/reward calculation in tech and there are a handful of charts that are clinging to support (GOOG and NVDA are two).
Friday's US calendar is bare and the Fed quiet period starts Saturday so that will put even more focus on earnings and corporate commentary. Notably, aluminum giant Alcoa was down 18% despite upbeat commentary.
