The lead in to the Asia session:
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Biden bans Russian oil; Russia to cut exports
- Australian PM Morrison to declare national state of emergency (this in relation to floods)
- SGD traders - head of Singapore's central bank sees serious stagflation risk
- Biden's Executive Order on crypto will be signed Wednesday 9 March 2022 - Yellen statement
- RBA Governor Lowe spoke earlier today ... edging more hawkish (or at least less dovish)
- Unconfirmed reports from sources in NATO: talks on No-Fly Zone over parts of West Ukraine
- China February CPI 0.9% y/y (expected 0.9%) & PPI 8.8% (expected 8.7%)
- Russia calls for nationalisation of production plants of firms that have halted operations
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.3178 (vs. estimate at 6.3094)
- Senior BOJ official says inflation likely to accelerate
- US military is repositioning two Patriot batteries to Poland
- More on US - Venezuela oil talks - US wants the oil shipped to them directly
- Venezuela has released a US hostage
- NZD traders heads up - dairy price forecasts revised higher
- Japan final Q4 GDP comes in much lower than the preliminary reading
- ICYMI - US threatens to 'shut down' Chinese firms that defy US sanctions on Russia
- OPEC Secretary General Barkindo says there is no shortage of oil
- Canada's Suncor says Canada can replace one third of Russian oil imports to the US
- Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for March -4.2% m/m (prior -1.3%)
- Fitch says a Russia debt default is imminent
- The US House will not be voting on Russia oil ban today - plans to vote tomorrow
- Pentagon says does not believe Poland’s offer of MiG fighter jets "is a tenable one.”
- Saudi, UAE signal they won’t help ease surging oil prices unless US supports them in Yemen
- RBA Gov. Lowe says not clear high CPI will be sustained, still need wage growth above 3%
- ICYMI - Poland to transfer all its 28 MiG-29 fighter planes to the US, then on to Ukraine
- RBA Governor Lowe says its plausible the cash rate will rise later this year
- Paypal suspends services in Russia
- RBA Governor Lowe's speech – Recent Economic Developments - live link
- Uh-oh. US media will air an "Oil shock" special TV show tonight, Tuesday 9 March 2022 6pm
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 09 March 2022
- Private oil survey data shows headline build in crude oil inventory (9 March 2022 )
- US says its not asking its allies to ban Russian energy imports as well
- McDonald's, Starbucks, Coca-Cola all pulling out of Russia
- NZD/USD forecast to above 0.6900 (by end 2022)
- Bank of Russia limits USD withdrawals to $10K
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke today, edging less dovish/more hawkish (see bullets above). Deputy Governor Debelle speaks later today.
A senior Bank of Japan official today said he sees inflation in the country accelerating. He cited both rising input and energy prices. Given energy prices are normally stripped out of ‘core’ CPI measures its not clear it’d rise to the BOJ’s 2% target. USD/JPY traded up on the session, only by 30 or so points, so perhaps this interpretation is more than just mine.
Speaking of inflation, China’s February CPI and PPI were released today. The headline CPI remained at 0.9% y/y and ‘core at 1.1% (dropping from 1.2% the previous 3 months in a row). Notably, the m/m headline change was a more significant 0.6%. The PPI backed off a little, from 9.1% in January to a still-high 8.8% in February. Price rises as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine will not flow through until next month, of course.
Oil prices ticked higher during the session, not in a runaway move as we’d seen earlier in the week, a much more subdued session for it today. In the news was Venezuela releasing two US hostages – a very welcome development and likely indicative of the progress made in US-Venezuela negotiations to get the country's oil back to market. The US has stipulated that as a precondition for this it’d want some shipments of oil directly to the US. Given the pressure’s on Biden from gas prices this makes sense.
The main focus, of course, is still Ukraine. In today’s news we had (see bullets above for more on all of these) :
- an offer from Poland of its MiG fighter jets to Ukraine
- further withdrawal from Russia of multinational corporations
- Russia’s central bank placing a limit on FX withdrawals
- the US sending two Patriot missile batteries to Poland
As already mentioned, USD/JPY traded a little higher on the session. Major FX movement away from yen was much more limited, lacklustre ranges prevailing.
Regional equities steadied. Japan (Nikkei225) and China (CSI300) traded a little higher.
USD/JPY:
