Looking ahead for a moment. Friday is a holiday across much of the Western world. Not so in Japan and China. China may very well cut rates. Check these out:
- A signal of a PBOC cut. This time from China's leaders. The PBOC will pay attention.
- Goldman Sachs says a People's Bank of China RRR cut "in the next few days"
- Expectations are rising for a PBOC cut on Friday, 15 April 2022
The last time the People’s Bank of China cut the RRR was December 2021, by 50 bp. This happened 3 days after Premier Li said “cut RRR at an appropriate time”. Friday may very well the next one.
- Australia March 2002 Jobs +20.5K fulltime, total +17.9K (vs. expected +40K)
- BOJ officials will appear in the Japanese Parliament today, from 10.30 Tokyo (0130 GMT)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.3540 (vs. estimate at 6.3543)
- Australia inflation expectations (Melbourne Institute’s April survey) 5.2% (vs. prior 4.9%
- South Korean central bank with an unexpected rate hike, up 25bps to 1.5%
- Monetary Authority of Singapore tightens monetary policy
- Singapore data - Preliminary Q1 GDP +0.4% q/q and +3.4% y/y
- Reuters poll finds more than 75% of Japanese firms unhappy with current weak yen
- Morgan Stanley are expecting "The Mother of all CAPEX Cycles"
- Biden administration is discussing sending a high-level official to Kyiv
- Goldman Sachs like the euro, expect ECB rate in September
- New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI March: 53.8 (prior 53.6)
- Yellen says China faces consequences if it fails to help stop Russia's war in Ukraine
- Coronavirus - China is quietly dialling back restrictions
- More from BoC Gov. Macklem - Market yields are consistent with a return to 2% CPI
- US stocks - Heads up for Thursday & monthly options expiration estimated at over $2 tln
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 14 April 2022
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Canada hikes by 50 basis points
- US stocks snap losing streaks
Back to today!
Thursday brought a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Korea, South Korea’s central bank. A 25bp increase (not 50 like the RBNZ and BoC on Wednesday). Singapore also tightened monetary policy. Singapore’s central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore manage monetary policy via adjustments to exchange rate levers. See the post above for more detail but in a nutshell the MAS re-centred the SGD band and raised the policy slope (slope of appreciation for the SGD). For the first time since 2010.
SGD rose on the announcement:
Also from the timezone today were employment figures from Australia, for March 2022. The headlines were misses but it was not a bad jobs report. Australia is at, or close to, full employment so wage growth should be stronger, if its not already. Speculation is increasing of an RBA rate hike in May but June is still the consensus.
AUD/USD is little net changed on the session. NZD/USD has risen, after its drop following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp rate hike on Wednesday.
USD/JPY swung around, dropping 40 or points in morning trade before recovering. As I post though its back on approach to its session low.
EUR, GBP, CAD all gained a little against the USD.
