Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) previews:
- Federal Reserve FOMC preview: 25 bp Fed Funds rate hike, and a step back on QT
- Deutsche Bank Federal Reserve preview: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hike 25bp
- FOMC meet Wednesday, 22 March 2023 - the Goldman Sachs preview is for no rate hike
- What's priced in for the Federal Reserve ahead of Wednesday's decision
Other
- No sign of stress here - BOJ receives zero demand in today's USD supply operation
- Japan fin min Suzuki: Its important for forex rates to move stably, reflect fundamentals
- JP Morgan don't like the NZD, say shorts vs. AUD and JPY
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8715 (vs. estimate at 6.8710)
- Australian data - Westpac Leading index for February sill in the doldrums
- ICYMI: The likelihood of a 'pause' from the RBA on April 4 is rising
- Outlook for the People's Bank of China - another RRR cut is later in 2023?
- Japan's Matsuno says the government will spend 2tln yen to cushion blow from rising prices
- ICYMI: Russia decided to keep its oil production at a reduced level through June (Novak)
- First Republic rescue may rely on US government intervention to shore up the bank
- Commerzbank slashes its 2023 midyear Brent crude oil forecast to US$80 a barrel (from $95)
- Société Générale likes EUR upside over the coming weeks
- ICYMI - Oil analyst says OPEC would intervene if oil prices dropped substantially
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows large headline build vs. draw expected
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 22 March 2023
- US indices surge ahead of Fed's interest rate decision despite rising yields
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar shines ahead of the FOMC
- New Zealand data - Q1 consumer confidence 77.7 (up from prior 75.6)
The Australian and New Zealand dollars recovered some ground after their falls on Tuesday. AUD/USD fared better, while NZD/USD has been stymied ahead of 0.6200. Its currently just under there as I post and threatening to make a liar out of me. There was basically no news of impact for either. A shipment of Australian coal has arrived in China, but this was expected. There has been some thawing in chilly Australia-China relations.
EUR/USD barely moved. USD/JPY rallied to circa 132.75 before dipping back to be little net changed on the session. GBP/USD is up a few points.
The latest on the First Republic Bank rescue is there may be further government support incoming to shore it up, more in the bullet point above.
The private survey of oil inventory we get each week, the day before the official US government report, showed a large headline build against the draw that was expected. The oil price is a little lower, the survey result cited as the reasoning.
There was no data of note.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +1.9% (Japan exchanges reopened after a holiday yesterday)
China’s Shanghai Composite +0.26%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +2.03%
South Korea’s KOSPI +0.85%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.83%
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is due at 1800 GMT today, 2pm US Eastern time. The consensus is for a 25bp rate hike, but not unanimously. Goldman Sachs is in the “on hold” camp saying financial stability concerns will trump inflation concerns at this meeting:
- Overall, the historical record suggests that the FOMC tends to avoid tightening monetary policy in times of financial stress and prefers to wait until the extent of the problem becomes clear, unless it is confident that other policy tools will successfully contain financial stability risks.
(more in the bullet point above)
