- Australia Q2 wage price index +0.8% vs +0.9% expected
- Japanese June PPI +3.0% y/y vs +3.0% expected
- July Australia NAB business conditions +6 vs +4 prior
- Goldman Sachs sees July US core CPI slightly below estimates
- Japan parliament to hold a special session to discuss Bank of Japan rate hike
- PBOC sets yuan midpoint at 7.1479 vs 7.1744 at the last close
- Secretary of State Blinken to travel to Middle East on Tuesday night
- Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak at Jackson Hole
- Fitch cuts Israel's credit rating to 'A' on war tensions
- New Zealand June net migration 2710 vs 1410 prior
- Iran attack not happening tonight - report
Markets:
- Gold down $9 to $2462
- WTI crude oil down 60-cents to $79.46
- US 10-year yields down 0.7 bps to 3.90%
- S&P 500 futures up 6 points
- Nikkei 225 up 2.2%
- NZD leads, JPY lags
Coming into the session, the market was on edge about an Iranian attack on Israel after Fox reported that it could take place within 24 hours but it wasn't long into the session before an Axios report that said an attack wasn't coming today. It took some time for that to sink in but it eventually led to a reversal in some of the gold and oil buying from New York trade.
Other market moves were minor, though some USD/JPY buying did creep in as Tokyo returned from a three-day weekend. That was coupled with a stronger-than-expected gain in Japanese stocks that saw them erase the last of the 12% record decline from last Monday.
Australian wage data was a touch on the light side and business conditions data slightly improved but AUD was generally unmoved.
Overall FX changes so far have been light, though there is some dollar selling that's likely a by-product of the Middle East calm. I'd warn that it's probably only a delay and we are likely to get another similar round of headlines about an imminent attack in the day ahead.
Otherwise, we were treated to a painfully-uneventful interview with Trump and Musk that produced nothing in the way of headlines. There was some crypto frontrunning in the lead-up to the talk but it quickly busted when there was no BTC pumping in the event.
