- China Banks Offer 25-Year Loans to LGFVs to Avert Credit Crunch
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says keeping in close high-level contact with US on FX
- Reminder - US markets are closed for a holiday on Tuesday, 4 July 2023
- ICYMI - China restricts export of metals used in high performance chips
- Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision still to come, an 'on hold' preview
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2046 (vs. estimate at 7.2386)
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are due this week - guide to July decision?
- ICYMI: Japan was removed from the US Treasury semi-annual currency manipulation list
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen had a frank and productive discussion with China's ambassador
- Australian weekly consumer confidence survey 74.1 (prior 74.9)
- Japan yen intervention guy Kanda says communicating with the US over currencies
- RBA preview - In May and June the Bank surprised with rate hikes ... "here we go again"
- Nomura expects EUR/GBP potentially as high as 0.90 by the end of the year.
- New Zealand data: Q2 business confidence -63% vs. -66% in the prior quarter
- ICYMI - Saudi Arabia and Russia are cutting oil supply again
- Goldman Sachs have cut their US inflation forecast for this year
- New Zealand to sign NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement and attend NATO Summit
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 3 Jul: ISM manufacturing PMI below 50 for the 7th month.
- Independence Day Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 4 July 2023
The RBA monetary policy decision and statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time. Analysts are almost evenly split on whether it’ll be a +25bp rate hike or an on-hold decision. Market pricing is well under 50% probability for a rate hike. There are previews in the bullet points above. AUD/USD is more or less unchanged for the session as I post.
On the data agenda we had the New Zealand Q2 Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). This showed some improvement, with business confidence rising only marginally. Cost pressures persist. NZD/USD is not a lot net changed on the session.
The People’s Bank of China set the reference rate for USD/CNY much stronger, for CNY, than was expected again today. The Bank seem intent on capping the rapid recent rise in USD/CNY for now.
From Japan today we had verbal intervention comments with both the Finance Ministry's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda and his boss, Finance Minister Suzuki, saying Japanese authorities are in close contact with the US on forex rates. The yen impact was minor only. USD/JPY dipped briefly under 144.45 and is back above 144.50 as I update.
More widely, major forex markets traded in limited ranges through the session. The US holiday ahead for today sapped interest.
