- Goldman Sachs forecasts Bank of England to hold rates at Dec meeting (vs. prior 25bp cut)
- European Central Bank speakers on Thursday include Escriva and Knot
- USD/JPY losing more ground now after the Bank of Japan 'on hold' decision
- North Korea says its ICBM test set new records
- USD/JPY is little changed after the Bank of Japan statement, around 153.35
- Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected
- Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaking in Hong Kong Thursday
- China's six major national banks will start to implement a new mortgage pricing mechanism.
- China official PMI data: October Manufacturing 50.1 (expected 50.0)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1250 (vs. estimate at 7.1242)
- Australian September 2024 Private Sector Credit +0.5% m/m (expected +0.5%)
- Australia retail sales (September) +0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%) & +0.5% q/q (prior -0.3%)
- Australian September building permits +4.4% m/m (prior -6.1%)
- Australian Export price index -4.3% q/q & import -1.4% q/q
- New Zealand data - ANZ October Business Confidence 65.7 (prior 60.9)
- Japan September Retail Sales +0.5% y/y (expected 2.3%)
- Japan Industrial Production (preliminary, September 2024) +1.4% m/m (expected +1.0%)
- TSMC have activated typhoon preparations at Taiwan locations
- Barclays looking for a 125K nonfarm payroll headline
- North Korea have fired off another ballistic missile
- 18 investment bank (and others) forecasts for US inflation- centre on 2.1% y/y (headline)
- Goldman Sachs quants says S&P 500 to swing +/- 2% on a wild election day
- RBNZ says home buyers remain cautious, market subdued
- Fed to cut by 25bp next week - don't have have enough conviction to hold rates unchanged
- Bank of Canada Governor Macklem sees pick up in business sentiment over next year
- Bank of Canada Governor Macklem statement to Senate committee same as one to Commons
- A rundown of the earnings after the close
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 31 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Meta Platform: EPS $6.03 versus expected $5.24 : Revenues: $40.59B vs $40.27B estimate
- Microsoft earnings better than expectations
- US major indices close lower
Major FX rates once again tracked subdued ranges in Asia. USD/JPY popped to above 153.50 for a time but there was no follow through. Traders awaited the Bank of Japan policy statement (I’ll come back to this).
News flow was light, but we did have data from Japan, New Zealand, Australia, and China.
On the central bank front, apart from the BoJ, were comments from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, who spoke to a Commons committee with the same message he delivered to a Senate committee on Tuesday. Macklem says the Bank is retaining optionality on hefty rate cuts if needed:
- “We’ve demonstrated we’re prepared to do a 50-basis-points cut if we think that’s appropriate. And if we think it’s appropriate to do it again, we’ll do it again.”
From Japan were:
- September preliminary industrial production data, better than expected, and
- September retail sales, which disappointingly missed estimates
New Zealand October business data (confidence and activity) improved a little from September
From Australia we had plenty of data, which didn’t move AUD too much at all:
- private sector credit rose by 0.5% in September, in-line with expectations, and in a broad-based way
- retail sales came in weaker than expected in September
- building approvals continued to gain
From China we had National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) official PMIs, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing improved, albeit a small increase only. The manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row and into expansion for the first time in six months.
The Bank of Japan maintained its short term interest rate target at 0.25%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. In its report the Bank made specific mention of FX.
USD/JPY dribbled a little lower in the immediate aftermath but soon dropped away more quickly down towards 153.00.
North Korea test fired an ICBM, setting new records:
- it flew at an altitude over 7,000km, covered a range of 1,000km and had the longest flight time
