- BOJ Gov Ueda spoke over the weekend, on BOJ policy and that of other major central banks
- Japan top economic council urge BOJ to consider modifying policy if CPI, wages keep rising
- Japan PM Kishida says government and BOJ need to closely coordinate policy
- Japan's wholesale prices rose in April y/y, but the pace slowed for the 4th straight month
- UK and Switzerland will begin talks on an upgraded free trade agreement on Monday
- PBOC 1 year MLF at an unchanged rate of 2.75%
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9654 (vs. estimate at 6.9658)
- National Australia Bank forecast further RBA rate hike(s), doesn't rule out to 4.35%
- Heads up for Federal Reserve System Chair Powell speaking late this week
- Japan April PPI +0.2% m/m (expected 0%)
- Weekend: ECB Vice President de Guindos said interest rate hikes are in their final stretch
- More on the expected G7 plans to tighten sanctions on Russia
- New Zealand April Services PMI 49.8 (prior 53.8)
- Gold - Australian gold miner Newcrest Ltd said it supports Newmont takeover offer
- Turkish presidential election update with 99% of vote counted - no candidate over 50% yet
- Iraq oil minister doesn't expect OPEC+ to make further cuts to oil output at June meeting
- Biden says he thinks debt ceiling meeting will be on Tuesday, 16 May, says he's optimistic
- Coinbase says UK & Canadian Customers unable to sell or withdraw to Paypal (fix underway)
- Turkish opposition party says a run-off vote for president is highly likely (May 28 date)
- Weekend - G7 and European Union plan to ban restart of Russian gas pipelines
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 15 May 2023
- Turkish election update - with nearly 90% of votes counted Erdogan's vote is below 50%
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 15 May 2023
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 May: USD moves higher as flight to safety dominates
Elections over the weekend in Turkey and Thailand prompted FX moves in the Turkish lira and Thai baht. In Turkey, incumbent president Erdogan’s party and allies scored a better-than-expected parliamentary majority. However, Erdogan himself appears set to fall short of 50% of the vote for President. Indeed with no candidate getting more than 50% of the vote for President, a runoff vote will be held on May 28. The lira dropped to a 2-month low with accompanying reports of Turkish state banks in the market to support the currency.
In Thailand, the opposition parties secured an election win on Sunday. They defeated a military junta allied coalition so it remains to be seen if there will be a transition. The baht rose but its not been one-way traffic.
On the data front Japan’s April month PPI rose, but at a slower rise for the 4th month in a row.
The People's Bank of China offered 125 billion yuan of medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans. This more than offset the 100 bn yuan maturing and is thus a 25 bn injection via the MLF. The rate remained unchanged but the injection is a small nod to support for economic growth from the Bank.
On US debt negotiation news, President Biden is expected to meet Tuesday with congressional leaders on the ceiling limit. Reports (unnamed sources) are that staff-level talks have been “productive” over the weekend.
Major FX rates have been relatively subdued, in small ranges only, following the US dollar strength on Friday.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.4%
China’s Shanghai Composite -0.6%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.05%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.2%
USD/Thai baht:
(This chart is from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link)
