- Another Japanese official parrots the warning that action will be taken on excess FX moves
- Australia to lower its GDP forecasts
- USD/JPY tracking sideways circa 149.00 after its earlier wild intervention swings
- Home prices in China fell 1.2% m/m in September, even more in y/y terms
- China September data: Industrial production +6.3% y/y (expected +4.8%)
- China's Q3 GDP 3.9% y/y (expected 3.3%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1230 (vs. estimate at 7.1173)
- CBA expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to rasie the cash rate by 25 bp next week
- Japan preliminary PMI October manufacturing 50.7 (prior 50.8)
- Wild wide swings for USD/JPY; down 400 points, up 200.
- More from Japan's Kanda - will not confirm intervention
- USD/JPY intervention - smashed lower
- USD/JPY update - back above 149.40
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says we are confronting speculators
- Japan intervention guy - will continue to take appropriate action against excess FX moves
- Goldman Sachs "well below" consensus estimates of a US recession on the next 12 months
- RBA's Kent says again that there are further rate hikes ahead
- Australia preliminary PMI: Manufacturing 52.8 (prior 53.5) & Services 49.0 (prior 50.6)
- Morgan Stanley remian bearish on AUD, look for it lower against the Kiwi $
- Korea - shots fired
- NZD traders note - it's a New Zealand holiday today
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 24 October 2022
- UK news - Rishi Sunak set to become the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson pulls out
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 24 October 2022
- Guest post: Wither China? 10 takeaways from the National Congress
- China's Xi pulls off one of the all-time power moves
- Newsquawk Week Ahead October 24-29th: The central bank derby begins
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Fed signals a 5% ceiling for now
The big news out of the Asian timezone today was the Bank of Japan intervention to sell USD/JPY. Estimates of the amount of selling ranged from USD30bn to USD50bn. The BoJ has to sell its foreign reserves of USD for such intervention. USD/JPY, and yen crosses, were smashed lower, with USD/JPY dropping 400 points from its high circa 149.70. The rebound was fierce also. As I update USD/JPY is not far from 149 again.
In other, way less notable, central bank news an RBA speaker, Assistant Governor Kent, repeated the message from the Bank that there are further interest rate rises ahead (November 1 is the next meeting). Kent also remarked on the falling AUD, saying that while the drop against the USD has been large the trade-weighted index fall is not nearly so great, saying its 'narrow and modest', and that this will mitigate the risk of imported inflation. We’ll see about that.
Chinese equity markets were slammed lower today. The Communist Party National Congress is over, the window-dressing propping up of the market took a breather.
Also from China we had Q3 GDP data (improved from Q2) and September economic activity data (retail sales slowed but industrial output improved). China GDP looks on track for around 3% this year but there are challenges in 2023 for the economy with the zero-COVID policy seemingly still entrenched, the slumping property sector, combined with the global economy slowing under the pressure of interest rate hikes.
US equity index futures opened strongly for the week but in the hours following gave back some of their gap-up gains. The Federal Reserve has headed into its quiet period (this began on Friday evening US time). Its probably no coincidence that signalling from the Fed heading into this was more supportive of asset prices.
