- Japan Economy Minister says real growth in the economy of 1.3% in FY 2025 not unrealistic
- BoJ Executive Director Kato: Bank has no plan to immediately unload its holdings of ETFs
- US ISM PMI data due Monday, the range of estimates (& why they're crucial to know)
- China has allocated 6.4bn yuan for vehicle trade-in subsidees
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May 2024: 51.7 (expected 51.5, prior 51.4)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1086 (vs. estimate at 7.2378)
- Australian private survey of inflation, May 2024: +0.3% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- Australian minimum wage increased by 3.75%
- Japan Jibun Bank May Manufacturing PMI (final) 50.4, first expansion in a year
- (At least) 2.6 million Australians are set for a wage rise from July 1
- Japan data - Q1 business capex +6.8% y/y (+12.2% expected)
- Its holiday time for Federal Reserve speakers - the 'Blackout' period has begun
- China says UK has two spies inside 'Chinese Central State Organs'
- Australia May Manufacturing PMI, final: 49.7 (prior 49.6)
- Bank of America warn that a drop in US tech stocks could be the next "pain trade"
- Northwestern Japan earthquake: Magnitude 5.9
- More from OPEC+: Saudi energy minister says waiting for interest rates to come down
- Goldman Sachs says the OPEC+ meeting outcome is bearish for oil
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 3 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 03 June 2024
- Weekly Market Outlook (03-07 June)
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 31 May: US PCE doesn't scare. Yields lower. US down and up
Early FX traded in a thinner liquidity environment than usual with New Zealand markets, usually the first to open in the world on a Monday, closed for a holiday.
The news flow early was dominated by the OPEC+ decision to extend cuts, but also outlining a plan to begin trimming them back from October. The details are in the post above. The response from analysts (and traders) was mixed, with some arguing the decision was bearish for the oil price while others took the opposite, bullish, side. Price action was similar, with oil opening and trading a little lower than its Friday close, before turning around and trading a little higher and then dribbling back to be little changed as I update.
The data of most note today was from China, the second of the two manufacturing PMIs. On Friday we had a poor official, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), manufacturing PMI while today’s from Caixin/S&P Global was much better. The Caixin PMI has been stronger than the official PMI in recent months. Of course, the two are very different surveys, that from Caixin is less focused on state-owned enterprises, with a greater representation of private sector and export-oriented firms. The result showed manufacturing activity in May grew at the fastest pace in about two years. Strong production and new orders featured.
We had mixed data from Japan, with the manufacturing PMI for May expanding for the first time in a year (see bullets above).
From Australia we had a couple of developments, with minimum and award wages announced to increase by 3.75% on July 1 (last year’s rise was 5.75%). The announcement came from the country’s Fair Work Commission (FWC). The FWC said the cost-of-living wages facing households was its primary consideration in making that decision, and that the increase was consistent with forecasts of inflation returning to target next year. This should go some way to easing Reserve Bank of Australia concern about rising wages as another stimulus it must counteract in its struggle to lower sticky high inflation. Also from Australia today the Melbourne Institute's Australian inflation gauge. This rose 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y. The y/y is the slowest in 21 month.
As for major FX, rates traded in a narrow range-bound fashion only. Regional equities traded stronger, mainland China being a laggard though.
