- European Central Bank's Panetta speaking Friday
- More on the disappointing China manufacturing PMI for May - fell back into contraction
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is speaking on Friday, late
- US inflation (PCE) data due Friday - here are the critical ranges to watch
- Australian April 2024 Private Sector Credit +0.5% m/m (expected +0.4%)
- China May 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 49.5 (expected 50.5)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1088 (vs. estimate at 7.2383)
- Japan will release its forex intervention data today, Friday, 31 May 2024.
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says FX stability is important
- Japan April Retail Sales +2.4% y/y (expected +1.9%)
- Japan April Industrial Output -0.1% m/m (expected +0.9%)
- Tokyo area May inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (prior 1.8%)
- UK data - Lloyds Bank business sentiment index hits its highest since November 2015
- Reports that OPEC+ is working on a deal to extend some oil production cuts into 2025
- Deutsche Bank on yields rising - "bad news" for risk assets across the globe
- Major FX little changed after Trump guilty verdict
- More Fed's Logan - worried about an energy price shock disrupting inflation expectations
- Donald Trump convicted - found guilty
- Fed's Logan: Too soon to think about rate cuts
- HSBC on recent China policy support, reason to tentatively buy mainland & Hong Kong stocks
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar gives some back
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 31 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
The major news of the session was the inflation data from Tokyo (OK, the other major news is way down the page, where it belongs). The Tokyo CPI accelerated in May. The national level CPI data will come along in around three weeks and if it follows suit (the Tokyo data is usually not too different from the national numbers) it’ll keep the Bank of Japan pretty much on track to consider a further rate hike in the months ahead. Note that the BoJ do not seem to be in too big a rush for the next hike.
Other data from Japan was mixed. Industrial production dropped in April, a surprise. Retail Sales moved ahead with a strong beat.
We had yen supportive comments from Japanese finance minister Suzuki today, he gave the yen a bit of a boost.
The other main data of focus were PMIs from China. These were the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMIs, the official ones. While the Services PMI dipped a touch it remained in expansion. The manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, showed a very poor result, dropping to a three-month low and back into contraction at 49.5. It’s a bumpy recovery in China for sure. Stay tuned for the privately surveyed Caixin PMIs to follow next week, manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday.
Major FX was mixed. The dollar strengthened against EUR and GBP, while NZD/USD rose. AUD and CAD were fairly flat.
USD/JPY dribbled down to lows around 156.60 after the data and Suzuki, but has since recovered to around the middle of its session range around 156.78 as I post.
Don’t forget, and be prepared, US inflation data is still to come:
And, before that, something interesting:
***
There is going to be no escaping the US election saga in the months ahead. Today’s bombshell was that Donald Trump was found guilty in his criminal trial in New York. In summary:
- Trump is the first US president to be convicted of a felony
- He was found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud
- Jurors were unanimous on all counts
- The case centered on hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels
- Sentencing will be on July 11
- Potential sentence is from nothing to up to 4 years in prison
Those are all facts, if you’d like speculation on what’s ahead, much of it ill-informed and partisan, there is plenty about. Or, you could just have a good weekend.
