- Japan Matsuno believes improvement in the BOJ Tankan reflects gradual recovery of economy
- Australia trade minister expects more announcements on improving trade with China soon
- China June 2023 Caixin / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.5 (prior 50.9)
- Australia ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 2.5% m/m in June (prior +0.1%)
- Australian May Building permits +20.6% m/m (expected +2.0%)
- Australian housing finance data for May 2023 rises
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.2157 (vs. estimate at 7.2464)
- Australian private survey inflation gauge for June headline is +0.1% m/m vs. 0.9% prior
- Japan Jibun June (final) Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (vs. preliminary 49.8 and prior 50.6)
- US Secret Service have just shut down access to area close to White House, HAZMAT incident
- Firms surveyed by BOJ expect CPI to be still above the Bank's 2% target in 1, 3 & 5 years
- Yellen to tell China that US actions not aimed at gaining economic advantage over China
- BOJ Q2 Tankan improves from Q1: Large Manufacturing outlook 9 (vs. 5 expected and prior 1)
- Australia June final Manufacturing PMI 48.2 (flash was 48.6, prior 48.4)
- New Zealand May Building Permits -2.2% m/m (prior -2.6%)
- Reminder - it's US Independence Day long weekend market holidays. Here are Globex hours.
- A free trade deal between Australia and the European Union is “still a fair way off”
- FT front page: Bond fund giant Pimco prepares for ‘harder landing’ for global economy
- Only one of Australia big four banks expects the RBA cash rate to remain on hold this week
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 3 July 2023
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 03 July 2023
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include NFP, FOMC Minutes, US ISMs, RBA
- JPY alert: The clear signals to watch for imminent Bank of Japan FX yen intervention
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 Jun: Core PCE dips modestly, and sends the dollar lower
It was an active session for economic data with the focus on China’s second manufacturing PMI. Last week we had the official PMIs, from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The official manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction for its third consecutive month. On the contrary, today we got the S&P Global/Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, for June, which expanded. While it fell by 0.4 of a point from May, to 50.5, it remained in the expansion zone and beat the central estimate of 50.2.
As an aside, we also had manufacturing PMIs from Japan and South Korea. Both contracted.
There were plenty of other data points, as shown in the bullet points above. Apart from the Chinese PMI the other data of most note was the Bank of Japan Q2 Tankan survey, which improved markedly from Q1 and quarters before. As part of the Tankan publication is the Tankan price expectations survey, which indicated firms expect the CPI in Japan to remain above the BOJ 2% target for the next five years. If the BOJ ever switches to the same expectation from its current view that inflation is transitory its reasonable to expect a pivot away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
As I update USD/JPY is not showing much of a sign of this, though, its spent the session mostly ticking higher. Its not yet testing last week’s high though.
The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan, CNY, much stronger than expected at the daily reference rate fixing today and drained a hefty 400bn+ yuan in open market operations.
![usdyen wrap chart 03 July 2023 boj tankan](https://images.forexlive.com/images/usdyen%20wrap%20chart%2003%20July%202023%20boj%20tankan_id_8b678a1f-619e-4e2c-9062-58221d29d365_size900.jpg)