- More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ
- ByteDance (TikTok owner) plans new AI model trained with Huawei chips
- Australian dollar a touch higher after better than expected retail sales data
- Australian August retail sales +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4%)
- BNZ forecast a 50bp interest rate cut from Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says forex levels should be determined by markets
- USD/JPY is testing above 144.00 on a cautious BOJ - faces resistance around here
- New Zealand Treasury don't expect activity to have picked up much in the latest quarter
- Japan Jibun Bank September Manufacturing PMI (final): 49.7 (prior was 49.8)
- Japan big manufacturers see USD averaging 144.96 yen for FY2024/25
- Bank of Japan September meeting 'Summary of opinions'
- Bank of Japan tankan report shows firms expect 2.4% inflation a year from how
- Data - Prices in UK shops fell at the fastest pace in more than three years in September
- Australian weekly consumer sentiment survey slipped a little to 82.0 (prior 84.9)
- Japan August unemployment rate 2.5% vs. 2.6% expected
- US dock worker union rejects latest pay offer
- Late "ray of hope" in US port strike - deadline looms though
- Israel announces the start of a ground operation in Southern Lebanon
- Australian final September manufacturing PMI 46.7 (prior 48.5)
- Australian August retail sales data due today, expectations are for a rise m/m
- Chief economists in the US say a 2025 recession is only a 30% chance
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell leaned against expectations of continuing large rate cuts
- New Japanese PM Ishida a positive for yen says abrdn
- New Zealand data - Q3 business cnfidence -1% (prior was -44%)
- Markets in China and Hong Kong are closed today, Tuesday, October 1, 2024 -
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 Sep:Fed Powell indicates there should be 2 cuts in 2024
- Bank of America target EUR/USD to 1.15
- US equity close: A surge in buying late
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, September 30, 2024
Chinese share markets did not trek towards the moon again today – it was a holiday in both mainland China and Hong Kong, markets were closed. Chinese markets reopen on Tuesday October 8. It was also a holiday in South Korea today.
USD/JPY was a mover, rising above 144.00 in the wake of multiple data points from Japan:
- the Bank of Japan Tankan report for Q3 showed sings that economy continues to recover
- the Bank of Japan ‘Summary of Opinions’ for the September meeting reiterated that monetary policy makers discussed the need to be cautious about raising interest rates given concern over volatility in financial markets, and uncertainty over the US economic outlook. I pointed out that these concerns were voiced on the day of the meeting, they are not new news
- Japan’s manufacturing PMI for September remained in contraction for a 3 rd consecutive month
USD/JPY encountered resistance above 144.00 and has since fallen back to just under 143.70. Japan's finance minister Suzuki said a few words on intervention efforts during his tenure, providing a bit of a cap for USD/JPY.
From New Zealand today we had an improved, but still weak, Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). NZ Treasury released its latest economic update, also acknowledging weakness and not painting optimism for much improvement immediately ahead. BNZ issued a forecast for a 50bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next week (meeting is October 9). NZD/USD has lost ground on the session and as I post is dipping to fresh session lows under 0.6325.
From Australia, data for retail sales in August showed improvement beyond estimates, helping AUD/USD to rise above 0.6930 briefly. Its since drifted back to be little changed on the day.
NZD/USD:
