- China's Xi says willing to work with Australia
- European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Monday
- Bitcoin back above US$63500
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 51.8 (expected 51.2, prior 51.7)
- Australian private survey of inflation, June 2024: +0.3% m/m (prior +0.3%)
- “Roaring Kitty” sued for Securities Fraud
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1265 (vs. estimate at 7.2558)
- Japan final manufacturing PMI for June 50.0 (prior 50.4)
- Chinese national security authorities have greater power to inspect smartphones from today
- Japanese firms expect the CPI at 2.4% a year from now
- Japan Q1 GDP (revised) -2.9% (from -1.8%)
- BoJ Tankan: Large manufacturing index rises to +13 (expected 12, prior 11)
- HSBC is wary of progress on US inflation stalling in the months ahead
- Australian final manufacturing PMI for June plunges further into contraction @ 47.2
- Update - I've seen at least two votes for 165 as the new 'line in the sand' for USD/JPY
- Macron's side still in with a chance in French election - here's how
- US military bases in Europe on high alert - "credible intel pointing to an attack"
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 1 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- BIS on the role FX intervention plays in modern monetary policy
- EUR/USD has popped a little higher
- North Korea has fired a ballistic missile
- Weekend data - China's offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole
- First round of French election - "Macron’s centrist alliance suffered staggering losses"
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 01 July 2024
- Weekly Market Outlook (01-05 July)
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: French & UK elections, US ISM & NFP, EZ CPI, FOMC Minutes
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Benign PCE report collides with tumultuous politics
EUR/USD opened for trade in very early Asia time (just New Zealand active) around 15-20 points higher than where it finished up late on Friday. This is not an epic gap up, but hey, its what we got. The news of impact for the euro was the result of the first round of the election in France, where the far-right National Rally is on track to win around 34%
- the left-wing alliance with 28.1, a good performance for them
- President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance came trailing behind on around 20.3%, this is a stunning loss
Without getting too deeply into French politics, the next, and final, round of voting is on July 7. If the results are similar there are a number of potential scenarios, including a hung parliament, an alliance of parties to block the far-right from reaching government, or a win for Le Pen’s rightists. There are many permutations, feel free to argue politics in the comments.
However, why did the euro pop? Again, feel free to argue politics, but the likely outcome as seen by investors is a more market-friendly government regardless of a far-right or centrist alliance, win. A far-right win is, prima facie, market friendly. Whereas an alliance between the centre and left is expected to see leftists dial back less market friendly policies in order to govern.
I’m not sure I am comfortable with either of those narratives, I think a period of instability is most likely but so far that's not the dominant theme.
USD/JPY is little changed on the session. It had risen back above 161.00 in early Tokyo trade but that's been unwound. We aren’t talking big moves though.
Hong Kong markets were closed today for a holiday, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day. This was the day in 1997 when Communist China resumed control of Hong Kong from the UK when the lease expired.
Elsewhere in the region, South Korea posted its largest monthly trade surplus in nearly 4 years.
China's 1-year interest rate swap fell to its lowest since June of 2020. Yields on 10- and 30-year Chinese government bonds hit new record lows.Over the weekend the official PMIs were poor; manufacturing stayed in contraction while services expanded as a slower rate. Today we had the private, Caixin/S&P manufacturing PMI, which was better. More in the points above on this.
Bitcoin rose back above 63500 USD:
