- US Federal Reserve speaker Tuesday, 12 July 2022 - Richmond's Barkin
- China COVID - Wugang city to be locked down
- Senior US official warns oil price could rise to $140 / barrel
- China stimulus comments rollin in - to build more highways
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec urges attention be paid to inflation causing lower spending power
- Japan fin min Suzuki says rapid yen weakening has been seen recently
- Australia business confidence 1 (prior 6)
- EUR/USD on approach to 1 in Asia
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7287 (vs. estimate at 6.7290)
- China COVID cases higher again today
- Australian monthly consumer sentiment survey drops another 3% to 83.8
- BOJ official laments wholesale import costs up more than 45% in yen y/y
- Goldman Sachs see EUR/USD plunging under parity, sees scope to around 0.96
- Shanghai has reported coronavirus cases. 3 outside quarantine
- IEA head Birol says the worst of the energy crisis has not yet been seen
- Japan June PPI 9.2% y/y (expected 8.8%) & 0.7% m/m (expected 0.5%)
- Australian weekly consumer confidence fell again this week
- UK - BarclayCard consumer spending up 6.2% y/y (utility spending surges nearly 40%)
- UK data on retail sales is masking the real collapse
- Russia oil exports update - key Black Sea facility will resume operations
- Eyes are on China's new COVID cases announcement later - acceleration in Shanghai
- Will Bitcoin get to parity before the euro?
- Here's what could send Canada into stagflation, recession
- ICYMI - Japan finance minister Suzuki to meet with US Treasury Secretary Yellen today
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 12 July 2022
- China bank run update - depositors to get access to small amounts
- White House says expects CPI data to be highly elevated
- US NSA says Iran is to supply Russia with several hundred drones
- US stocks close lower on the day.
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro stumbles towards parity
All eyes were on the approach of the euro to 1 against the US dollar. As I update the rate has not yet hit parity, lows were circa 1.0006.
EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and GBP all lost ground against the US dollar. Yen managed to add on a few points, USD/JPY dropping to lows under 137.10 at one stage. The yen was supported, for this session at least, by a number of factors including:
- producer-level inflation data came in strong, again. A Bank of Japan official remarked that import prices surged at their fastest pace since data began tracking this variable since 1980, due to the slumping yen
- Japanese finance minister Suzuki remarked on the ‘rapid’ yen fell (applying the description ‘rapid’ is a code word for heightening concern amongst Japanese authorities)
- Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Matsuno expressed concern on rising prices diminishing consumer spending power (to the extent this is from rising import prices it also has yen implications)
From China we had COVID news – rising cases, and a lock down announced for a regional city (there was 1 case, described as ‘abnormal’, this triggered the lock down) for three days (3 days for now, these have a tendency to be extended and exited very slowly).
The data focus was on Australian business confidence and conditions, from the latest National Australia Bank survey. Both of the main measures fell on the month. Confidence plunged to a below average value of 1 while conditions dropped to 13, still above the long-run average. There is more in the bullets above. Labour costs in the survey came in with a sharp rise, a record quarterly pace. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been looking for rising wage costs, they are getting them. More rate hikes were baked in, this confirms it, if any further confirmation was needed.
