- Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking Monday, 5 February 2024
- An Australian citizen has been given a (suspended) death sentence by a Chinese court
- Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speech on Monday 5 February 2024, & news conference after
- More Federal Reserve speakers on the agenda for Monday, 5 February 2024
- New quality glitch to delay some Boeing 737 MAX deliveries - mis-drilled holes
- US Central Command said forces conducted strikes on four Houthi cruise missiles
- China Caixin Services PMI for January 52.7 (prior 52.9)
- Here's the full 60 Minutes transcript of the interveiw with Federal Reserve Chair Powell
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1070 (vs. estimate at 7.2088)
- Japan January Services PMI 53.1 (prior 51.5)
- Australian data - January imports and exports both higher than in December
- Australia: Melbourne Institute January headline inflation gauge +0.3% m/m (prior +1.0%)
- Fed head Powell: A March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut is unlikely
- Weekend - China pledged to stabilise markets but policymakers offered no specifics
- Governor declares state of emergency in Southern California counties due to storm
- Morgan Stanley expects US equity prices to become choppy, citing ‘late-cycle environment’
- Australia January Services PMI 49.1 (prior 47.1)
- Trump once again confirmed he would impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, or higher
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 5 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 05 February 2024
- Hamas set to reject Gaza ceasefire deal proposed in Paris - report
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: RBA, China inflation, US ISM services PMI, annual US CPI revisions
- Weekly Market Outlook (05-09 February)
- Dark days are coming for US commercial real estate and the banks holding the loans
The focus of the session was the interview with Federal Reserve Chair Powell on US TV show ‘60 minutes’. The interview was recorded on February 1 and went to air on the evening of February 5 (US time). Powell did not say anything really new, if you heard him speaking on Wednesday you basically heard what he had to say today. What was more interesting, at least a flurry of interest, was what he didn’t say. In the written article accompanying the interview the journalist wrote:
- The most likely time for the first interest rate cut will be the middle of the year
The journo did not attribute this to Powell, and indeed such a specific timing remark didn’t appear in the transcript (the link to this is above). However, the fact that it was written in the article but not actually said by Powell caused a stir, even if only briefly. Market pricing for the June meeting is around 85% for a cut so it probably isn’t too far from what the first step will be.
Across major FX there is not a lot of net change. Most major FX against the USD traded in a subdued range. USD/JPY climbed to above 148.75 at one stage but as I post is back to being more or less unchanged on the session.
Over the weekend were vague ‘pledges’ from Chinese authorities to support equity markets. Chinese stocks fell again today. Hard. As I post the Shanghai Composite is down around 1.8%. About a quarter of individual equities are limit down for the session.
Over the weekend Trump said, again, that if elected he'd be thinking of imposing 60% tariffs on imports from China.
USD/JPY had a round trip up and back
