- US CPI data due later Thursday - here is the range of estimates
- JP Morgan markets group list a stack of supportive inputs for the stock market
- Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Logan, Bostic and Collins
- European Central Bank speakers due Thursday
- China Everbright Group Chairman will be arrested
- Mizuho forecasts USD/JPY as high as 155 in Q1 2024
- BOJ's Noguchi says biggest focus is if wage rise momentum will be sustained or not
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1776 (vs. estimate at 7.2932)
- Bank of England Chief Economist Pill is speaking Thursday 12 October
- BoA says that "The equal weighted S&P could rip" - could do double the S&P 500 gain
- Australian data: Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.8% (prior 4.6%)
- Japan data August Core Machinery Orders -0.5% m/m (expected +0.4%) & -7.7% y/y (-7.3%)
- Japan data: September PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%) +2.0% y/y (expected 2.3%)
- ICYMI - Japan's government is considering extending fuel subsidies
- ECB's Vujcic says too soon to declare victory over inflation, waiting for early 2024 data
- UK data - RICS house price balance drops to -69 in September (vs. -63 expected)
- Goldman Sachs says the risk for US yield is skewed to the downside
- Barclays sees scope for stock earnings risks "titled to the downside"
- PIMCO says bullish longer term bonds (12 month horizon), cites peaking inflation
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen will meet with People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng
- New Zealand food prices fall in m/m September: FPI -0.4% m/m
- Fed's Collins says the Federal Reserve will factor in 'unrest in the Middle East'
- RBNZ Gov. Orr says OCR will need to stay at restrictive levels for the foreseeable future
- Russia has reimposed various capital controls to try to stem the ruble's slide
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 11 Oct: FOMC minutes show time to shift started to steady
- Fed's Collins says FOMC is at or near the peak of the rate hike cycle
- Private oil survey data shows a huge headline build, order of magnitude more than expected
- Major US stock indices close higher for the 4th consecutive day
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 12 October 2023
It was a subdued range day across major FX rates with the market here in Asia-Pacific content to wait on the consumer-level inflation data due from the US at 8.30am Eastern time. On Wednesday we got a blowout PPI result delivered in that, wholesale-level inflation data. US equities shrugged it off and climbed higher. I have a post above on the range estimates for the headline and core CPI measures if, like me, you are leaning towards another blowout. As always, we’ll see, but at least you will have the expected minimums and maximums available.
News flow was light and non-impactful.
Data flow for Japan was disappointing for Core Machinery Orders while the September PPI came in negative, very much the opposite of the US PPI on Wednesday. Its difficult to get too excited about long yen with such data. Adding to the net yen weakness (again, ranges were only small) were comments from a Bank of Japan monetary policy board member with no indications from him of any near-term pivot in policy from the Bank.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +1.2%
China’s Shanghai Composite +0.9%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +2.1%
South Korea’s KOSPI +0.9%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.1%
Oil was little changed also:
