- More Chinese banks cut rates
- Bank of America say they remain bearish US stocks, investors are too bullish, Fed not done
- Nomura cites a "strong signal" for a cut to MLF rate this week and the LPR next week
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1212 (vs. estimate at 7.1214)
- Iran's supreme leader said a deal with the West over the nuclear program is possible
- New Zealand GDP forecasts revised lower
- China state-controlled financial media says PBOC may cut MLF rate by 5 to 10 bp this week
- BOJ ex-dep gov Wakatabe - don't expect a change from BOJ at this week's, June, meeting
- Japan PPI (May) -0.7% m/m (expected -0.2%)
- Bank of Japan to remain on hold at its meeting this week - preview
- BCC said the UK economy will probably avoid recession. BCI says the same now.
- New Zealand data - May retail sales -1.7% m/m 9exp +0.3%)
- UBS is looking for a lower USD
- ICYMI - China raised gold holding for 7th straight month / Physical gold demand slowed
- More on Goldman Sachs slashing its December Brent oil forecast to $86 from $95
- Bank of America says the Federal Reserve could take Fed Funds to 6% in the next 12 months
- Saudi Arabia & OPEC+ are trying to combat “uncertainties and sentiment” in the oil market
- Goldman Sachs slashed its December Brent forecast to $86 /bbl (from previous estimate $95)
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 12 June 2023
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 12 June 2023
- E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Unraveling the 4400 forecast and what's next
- Week Ahead: US CPI, FOMC, Retail Sales; ECB; PBoC, China activity data
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 9 Jun: USD falls this week as market awaits the FOMC
Later this week we’ll get the People’s Bank of China setting the rate on its Medium Term Lending Facility (MLF). The MLF will be set on Thursday, the 15th. The chance of a cut to the rate, expected of around 10 basis points for the one-year, is firming up with more Chinese banks cutting deposit rates today following cuts from the largest six state banks last week. The MLF sets the stage for Loan Prime Setting (LPR) on the following Tuesday (the 20th).
Current rates are:
- MLF one-year interest rate 2.75%
- one-year LPR 3.65%
- the five-year LPR 4.3%
The yuan lost ground during the session, this is the offshore, USD/CNH:
Other news was over the weekend. Goldman Sachs cut their Brent forecast, again. The Saudis said OPEC+ is trying to address speculative uncertainty and sentiment in the oil market. More in the bullet points above on these.
The economic data point of focus was that for wholesale-level Japanese inflation, the PPI for May. This slipped further than expected.
The USD added on points during the session, Yen was the most notable, with USD/JPY rising from lows under 139.25 to above 139.60 as I post.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.7%
China’s Shanghai Composite -0.4%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.6%
South Korea’s KOSPI -0.5%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 - Australia was out for a holiday today
