- Ex-Fed Dudley: Failure to lift debt ceiling means stock & bond prices see violent decline
- Forecast for liquidity boost from the People's Bank of China, and a possible RRR cut
- Australia data - March Retail Sales +0.4% m/m (expected 0.2%)
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand says labour market data remains strong, job security is high
- This week's "May Day holiday supercharges China's economy"
- Deutsche Bank on oil: downside demand risks, negative macroeconomic sentiment, China
- Reminder - There is no CNY reference rate setting from the PBOC today, China holiday
- Bank of Korea Governor wary of "large" forex volatility
- FOMC preview - base case is today's hike will be the last, but risk of more to come
- US banking sector turmoil will remain in market focus - US Senate investigation
- Australian services PMI (final, April) 53.7 (a huge jump from the prior of 48.6)
- New Zealand jobs report for Q1 2023: Unemployment rate 3.4% (3.5% expected, 3.4% prior)
- BlackRock's Rieder says the Fed may pause ‘for an extended period of time’ after rate hike
- ECB may hike by 25bps, may not be enough to trigger a clean EURUSD breakout above 1.11
- RBNZ Governor Orr says NZ financial system is well placed to handle higher interest rates
- ICYMI: Iran’s Oil Minister says the country's oil production now exceeds 3mn bbls / day
- Private oil survey data shows much larger draw than was expected
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 3 May 2023
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 2 May: Weaker JOLTs and banking fear sends USD/rates lower
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its latest Financial Stability Report today, not raising any concerns. This was followed later by the New Zealand Q1 labour market report, which came in with jobs added and a lower-than-expected jobless rate. While Q1 is a long way past, the data, when combined with the lack of worry from the RBNZ over stability, firms up prospects for an RBNZ rate hike at its next meeting. This is scheduled for May 24. NZD/USD rose on the session in response, to highs just shy of 0.6250.
While on central banks, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee spoke in an interview saying, amongst other points, that it’s a little bit premature to talk about a policy pivot (see bullets above).
Elsewhere across major FX the USD net lost ground against a higher JPY, CHF, EUR and GBP. AUD and CAD lagged.
Chinese and Japanese markets were closed today for holidays.
And, a reminder, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is due at 2pm US Eastern time, which is 1800 GMT. Federal Reserve Chair Powell will follow with a press conference a half hour later. He’d better get his communications spot on, markets are edgy right now, US banking system concerns rose again on Tuesday.
- FOMC preview: A dovish hike, but how dovish?
- Federal Reserve FOMC meeting this week - Goldman Sachs preview: 'Signaling a June Pause'
