Reserve Bank of New Zealand - read from the bottom up for the chronological order:
- RBNZ Gov Orr says not bound by policy meeting dates, can act on shocks if needed
- RBNZ Gov. Orr says forecasts show upward bias to rates, but not a done deal
- The risk of an RBNZ rate hike "is real"
- RBNZ Policy Meeting: NZD/USD surges
- RBNZ leaves cash rate unchanged at 5.5%, as expected
Other:
- More Fed speakers coming up Wednesday - another dovish tilt?
- US Treasuries yields slammed lower in Asia. 2 yr to a 4 month low
- Bank of England Governor Bailey will discuss Foreign Exchange market issues today
- Bank of Japan's Adachi denies speculation of ending negative interest rates
- BOJ official says yet to see positive wage-inflation cycle - easy policy to remain
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1031 (vs. estimate at 7.1340)
- Australian dollar dips as monthly CPI falls short of expectations
- Australian monthly CPI for October 2023 4.9% y/y (vs. expected 5.2%)
- UBS warns of the risk of an impending financial crisis due to private credit bubble
- Hedge fund expert predicts early rate cut from the Federal Reserve
- Hedge Fund chief Bill Ackman says Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner than expected
- Chinese local governments provide capital boost to struggling banks amid property crisis
- Goldman Sachs to boost investments in Japanese businesses and real estate
- Bank of America strategist predicts S&P 500 to 5000 in 2024, but concerns in the shadows
- Fed's Goolsbee says he has some concerns about keeping rates too high for too long
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar slumps after Waller puts rate cuts on the table
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows headline draw slightly smaller than was expected
- US stocks rise as Nasdaq leads the way
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 29 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
It was a busy day in Asia with Australian inflation data, a more hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and a Bank of Japan policy board maker standing in front of the freight train of USD/JPY selling and helping turn it around. For now at least.
Australian monthly inflation data for October came in well down from September and under the median estimate. Looking further ahead, base effects should contribute to a further, and rapid, fall in the rate for the next few months ahead, although these effects will dissipate into the new year.
There are, of course, caveats to today's data release:
- Monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, covering only updated prices for between 62 and 73 per cent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket.
- October data had a large 'goods' representation compared with services so its lower than it otherwise would have been.
- The core, trimmed mean, didn't fall much at all from its reading in September. The underlying inflation pressure is still solid.
- Inflation rates for most components are still much higher than the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target.
AUD/USD dipped a little on the data but rose soon after, led by a strong NZD (more on this to come). As I post its back to being barely changed on the session.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected, but the statement, minutes and Governor Orr’s following press conference were hawkish. The Bank said it’ll hold rates high for quite a while to come as inflation is still too high. The Bank revised its track for the OCT higher, implying a better-than-even chance of another 25 bp rate hike ahead.
NZD/USD jumped higher, to above 0.6200, and its just under there as I update.
Bank of Japan Policy Board member Seiji Adachi spoke, hitting back at the article in the Nikkei yesterday, link to this here ICYMI:
Adachi emphasized that:
- recent tweaks to YCC were not a policy change
- now is not the time to say the Bank's inflation target has been met
- policy will remain easy, and indeed the Bank will take further easing steps if needed
USD/JPY hit lows under 146.75 but since bounced back.
More broadly the USD weakened further across the major FX board. US yields remained under pressure after dovish Fed officials on Tuesday:
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar slumps after Waller puts rate cuts on the table
- Fed's Goolsbee says he has some concerns about keeping rates too high for too long
The People’s Bank of China set its reference rate today at the strongest for the CNY since June 5.
The bird in flight:
