- RBNZ's own preferred inflation model 3.6% y/y (prior 4.2%) for Q2 2024
- Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Barkin, Waller and Schmid
- Heads up for RBA's John Simon to speak on Wednesday
- Australian June leading index - economy improving but to remain below trend into 2025
- Financial Times: Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1318 (vs. estimate at 7.2630)
- NZD/USD remains higher after the lower than expected NZ inflaiton data
- ANZ forecast an RBNZ interest rate cut in November (previously forecasting February 2025)
- Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) June 2024: -0.4% m/m vs. +4.1% expected
- Despite the US data on Tuesday a September cut remains priced in
- ICYMI - IMF says the Bank of Japan is facing challenges ensuring price stability
- Japan data - Reuters Tankan for July: Manufacturers Index +11 (prior +6)
- New Zealand Q2 CPI 0.4% q/q (expected 0.5%) & 3.3% y/y (expected 3.4%)
- Trump wants 60% tariff on China, China can respond by letting the yuan fall
- Société Générale on US stocks - point to broadening profit cycle, improving breadth
- Trump disagrees with a September Federal Reserve rate cut - wants rates higher for longer
- Trump says he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul. The shift into the Russell 2000 and Dow continues
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs build expected
- IMF expect only one Fed rate cut this year
- Dow and S&P close at records
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 17 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
New Zealand was the focus of the session, with Q2 inflation data from both StatsNZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The official CPI data for the quarter from StatsNZ came in a little under the median expectation, a welcome development. At 3.3% its still, of course, above the upper end of the 2–3% RBNZ target band.
NZD/USD rose on the day despite the lower CPI result. ANZ shifted their forecast for the first RBNZ rate cut from February 2025 to November 2024.
Later in the day we had the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s own inflation measure, their “sectoral factor model” for Q2. This came in at 3.6% y/y, well down from Q1’s 4.2% but, of course, well above the top of the target band still.
US politics remained centre stage. While the Trump convention continued Bloomberg TV had an interview with him. Of note for those interested in economic developments were Trump once again pledging sharply higher tariffs. Of note for traders more specifically were Trump’s remarks on not wanting any Federal Reserve interest rate cut until after the election. The Financial Times headlined this with “Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election”. Trump says he does not want a boost given to the economy or Biden ahead of the election. Will Federal Reserve Chair Powell succumb to the threat? I don’t know.
Apart from the NZD move today major FX rates were fairly subdued.
