- AUD/USD has dropped on the smaller than was expected 25bp RBA rate hike
- RBA raises its cash rate by 25bp
- RBA policy announcement due at the bottom of the hour - previews
- Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno warns of a possible North Korean nuclear test
- Recap - Tokyo CPI accelerated for a 4th consecutive month , fastest rise since 1992
- TD recommend short EUR/USD and GBP/USD
- Goldman Sachs forecast a 'front-loaded' rise in the oil price on a 1mn bbl/day OPEC+ cut
- OPEC+ cancelled a meeting of its Joint Technical Committee (JTC) - background on the JTC
- Waiting on the USD/CNY fixing? There will be none this this week - China is on holidays
- Australian Job Ads -0.5% m/m in September (prior +1.5%)
- Australia housing finance data for August, headline home loans -2.7% m/m (expected -3.5%)
- Australia Building Permits (August) +28.1% m/m (expected +5.0%)
- Reasons for a Fed rethink on the pace of rate hikes are mounting
- Tokyo area inflation data for September: Headline 2.8% vs. 2.8% expected
- Yen rises a few points after North Korea launches a ballistic missile towards Hokkaido
- Australia consumer confidence weekly survey fell by 2.6% w/w
- Japanese media says North Korea has launched a missile
- Oil - An OPEC+ 1mn barrel / day output cut "would tighten the market considerably"
- Australian September Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (prior 49.3)
- A US/Iran deal appears even more distant,Biden vows 'further costs' on violent Iran regime
- New Zealand data - Business confidence in Q3 -42% (prior -65%)
- Reminder - Chinese markets are closed today and all week, Hong Kong is closed today also
- Ray Dalio says "the short-term interest rate is now about right"
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 4 October 2022
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bad manufacturing news is good news
- More from Fed's Williams: Fed still has more rate hikes ahead, citing 4.6% median 2023 dot
- Solid drive to the upside in the major US indices today
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate by 25bp at its monetary policy board meeting today, vs. the +50bp rate hike that was widely (though not unanimously) expected. In his accompanying statement Governor Lowe said that the cash rate has increased "substantially in a short period of time". He went on to say that slowing down the pace of rate hikes today gives the Bank an opportunity to assess household spending, wages, inflation and global economic developments to inform its path of rate hikes to come. It appears now theat further hikes will be +25, no more +50s to come from the RBA.
AUD/USD fell on the announcement. As I update it has not followed through lower though, having bounced back to be not a lot changed from pre-announcement.
USD/JPY dropped briefly on the news that North Korea had launched a missile in the direction of Japan’s Hokkaido. The ballistic missile overflew Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. North Korea launch ballistic missile tests with some regularity, but today’s was the first to fly over Japan since 2017.
USD/JPY soon recovered its poise and has since moved higher on the session.
We had data from Japan today, Tokyo area inflation (for September) rising again, this time at its fastest since 1992 (excluding those readings when the sales tax was raised).
Elsewhere, major FX ranges have been relatively subdued. The absence of China from markets has sapped some interest and flows in the region so far for the week.
