Reserve Bank of New Zealand:
- Still to come from the RBNZ - testimony due on Thursday, 24 November 2022 (local time)
- More from the RBNZ news conference: Tightening cycle mature, closer to end than beginning
- ANZ are now forecasting an RBNZ peak cash rate at 5.75% (vs. current OCR at 4.25%)
- RBNZ Orr says it will be a shallow recession
- Responses to the RBNZ +75bp rate hike - ASB forecast cash rate at 5.5% by April 2023
- Headlines greeting the RBNZ rate hike: "New Zealand delivers its biggest rate hike ever"
- RBNZ raise cash interest rate target by +75bp to 4.25%, as widely expected
Other:
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1281
- Violent protests erupt at Apple's main iPhone plant in China - Bloomberg with the headline
- PBOC adviser says that there is limited room for China to cut interest rates
- BoE Chief Economist Pill is speaking on Wednesday, 23 November 2022 - on inflation policy
- Magnitude 6 earthquake in Western Turkey
- New Zealand Finance Minister Robertson says the economy faces significant challenges
- Singapore Q3 GDP +1.1% q/q (expected 1.5%, prior +6.3%)
- ANZ see gold lower to test support
- More China COVID - Chengdu city to conduct mass testing for 5 days
- Deutsche Bank on China COVID - added to existing fears about a US recession
- BoA on China COVID flaring up, again - "many people will only reluctantly re-engage"
- More on G7 price cap on Russian oil - will probably adjust the level a few times a year
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows larger than expected headline draw
- Australia preliminary PMI November: Manufacturing 51.5 (prior 52.7) & Services 47.2 (49.3)
- China has held off on buying Russian oil - awaiting the price cap to get it even cheaper
- US Treasury issues guidance on how to implement the price cap on Russian crude
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Stocks higher. Yields/Dollar lower.
- Goldman Sachs sees room for the US dollar to move even higher in 2023 (before topping out)
- Wall Street Journal: Iran Says It Has Stepped Up Production of Highly Enriched Uranium
- Chatter of an OPEC+ oil supply increase won't go away
- Major US indices close higher. Gains led by the Nasdaq and the S&P indices.
The RBNZ hiked their cash rate target for a ninth consecutive meeting today. It was by the largest amount ever, a 75bp hike. This takes the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.5% to 4.25%. The Bank issued a hawkish forecast for the path ahead. ANZ in New Zealand are tipping a 5.75% peak OCR, which is still 150bps away. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet in 3 months time, on February 22. In the meantime, Merry Christmas, especially if you have a floating rate mortgage in New Zealand. Ugh.
NZD/USD is higher for the session, although its off a little from the peak seen after the RBNZ announcement. Elsewhere across major FX EUR/USD is an outperformer also. Ranges across major rates have remained small this pre-FOMC minutes session. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) November 1 and 2 meeting are due at 1900 GMT.
Regional stock markets were subdued also. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. As I update this post Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is around +0.5%, Shanghai Composite is barely changed.
In crypto news, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed into law a two-year moratorium on proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrency mining. This is intended to address some of the environmental concerns (massive mining power use) around cryptocurrencies. Its quite restrictive.
NZD/USD:
