- USD/JPY tumbling
- China Airlines close to split order for 20 passenger jets between Airbus and Boeing.
- There is a deluge of European Central Bank speakers Thursday - Lane (3 spots!), Schnabel
- AUD and NZD continue to retrace yesterday's losses
- China October dollar denominated exports +12.7% y/y & imports -2.3%
- China's Xi Jinping congratulates Trump on election victory
- China January - October dollar denominated exports +5.1% y/y & imports +1.7%
- Ethereum surging even higher, highest since august
- Bank of Canada's Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor, speaks Thursday
- China and Hong Kong Stocks Drop Amid Trump Presidency Fears and Stimulus Expectations
- China state banks seen selling USD/CNY - intervention to slow yuan drop
- Trump Victory Implications: Market Outlook and Sector Analysis
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1659 (vs. estimate at 7.1679)
- Vitol says China is restarting oil demand growth
- JP Morgan not expecting Trump universal 10% tariff next year, but China faces high tariffs
- Australian imports and exports both fell m/m in September
- ICYMI - ECB Villeroy says Trump policies could lead to higher deficit, inflation in the US
- Japan yen intervention official closely watching market moves with high sense of urgency
- Japan September wages data - real wages -0.1% y/y
- Japan survey points to over half of firms expecting to raise wages by at least 3% next FY
- Y'all set for four years of volatile FX tweet/headline trading?
- RBA Governor Bullock says too early to judge US election, tarrif implications
- MUFG says GBP is less vulnerable to Trump tariffs than others
- Brasil's central bank has hiked its benchmark rate by 50bp to 11.25%, as expected
- US Vice President Kamala Harris speaking now - live link
- Japan looks to tighten cryptocurrency exchanges (websites) asset rules
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 7 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
It’d probably be quicker to say the EUR lagged.
AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP all rose against the USD, as did the yen. There weren’t really notable fresh catalysts, the move seemed more of a retracement of the Trump election win rally.
From Japan we had wages data, once again showing a slide for real, inflation-adjusted, wages, though not as large as in August. Base pay did show a very strong rise though, so it’s a mixed message for the Bank of Japan (the Bank next meet in mid-December but political pressure is likely to keep the Bank on hold until the new year).
Also from Japan were comments from Atsushi Mimura, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA 'top currency diplomat'. Mimura is the Ministry official who would direct Bank of Japan intervention, should it come to that. Mimura had ‘verbal intervention remarks’, including:
- yen moves "one-sided and drastic"
- "closely watching developments on the currency market, including those driven by speculators, with utmost urgency"
- “ready to take appropriate actions against excess moves"
USD/JPY backed off a little from its highs but moves were not large.
Trade data from China showed a m/m decline in imports but a strong rise in exports, the fastest growth in more than two years. It does seem that exports are being ramped up ahead of expected Trump tariffs on Chinese goods. The slide for imports is troubling, this is normally taken as a sign of a weak economy.
Chinese state banks were seen in the market selling USD/CNY, in an attempt to slow the fall of the yuan. Chinese stocks rallied after a soft opening. There may well have been some state bids helping them out. Note, the Chinese leadership meeting, the National People's Congress Standing Committee, is expected to bring further stimulus measures. This concludes on Friday.
As I prepare to post the yen has shown strength, taking USD/JPY down under 154.00.
On oil we had comments from Vitol, its CEO said expects China's oil demand to grow by 700k bpd in 2025.
