- Despite the PBoC keeping MLF rate unchanged, talks of a Loan Prime Rate (LPR) cut persist
- NZD traders heads up - RBNZ advisory of Governor Orr speech after the next policy meeting
- AUD traders heads up - RBA February meeting minutes are due tomorrow
- Ship attacked in Red Sea by Houthi terrorists has been abandoned by the crew
- China's trade-weighted yuan rises to its highest level since October 30, 2023
- People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 7.1032 (vs. estimate at 7.1970)
- US markets are closed on Monday, February 19 in observance of Presidents Day.
- UK property prices show first annual rise in 6 months according to Rightmove data
- Japan data - December core machinery orders +2.7% m/m (expected 2.5%)
- BNZ change their RBNZ rate cut forecast to November, from August previously
- Goldman Sachs raised their year-end S&P 500 index target to 5200 from 5100
- China Premier Li says policy should be consistent and stable
- Japan's Finance Minister hints at future interest rate increase, remains vague on timeline
- Westpac sees scope for easier Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy within next year
- ICYMI, ex-fed Bullard says Federal Reserve should cut rates in March - pre-emptive move
- New Zealand data - January Services PMI 52.1 vs. prior 48.8
- Tourism revenues in China during the Lunar New Year holidays +47.3% y/y, above pre-Covid
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 19 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 19 February 2024
- Newsquawk week ahead: Minutes from the FOMC, ECB and RBA, flash PMIs and PBOC
- Weekly Market Outlook (19-23 February)
- PBOC leaves MLF rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected
- The week ahead: A look at the technicals in play for the major currency pairs
- Bitcoin price forecast, why sell at $51500 - $52000, may decline to $38000 - $39000 📉📊
It was a quiet session across major FX ahead of the US and Canadian holidays coming up today. Major exchanges are closed in the US on Monday (note that the CME Sunday evening Globex session is open as I post, but trade will halt for Monday – see post above for time details).
Eyes were on China, where markets reopened after the week-long New Year holiday. Leading into Monday’s reopen was the news from the People’s Bank of China over the weekend that the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate was left unchanged. An unchanged MLF is usually followed by an unchanged LPR setting, but rumours continue to swirl about the potential for a cut to the 5-year rate. The rate setting is tomorrow, the 20th, at 0115 GMT, which is on the 19th at 2015 US Eastern time.
Chinese equity markets opened a little higher but have shown no follow-through higher to speak of.
News and data flow here on the day was very light.
There are reports out of the Red Sea that a commercial vessel was the subject of a Houthi terrorist attack. The crew are said to have abandoned the ship. Oil is more or less unchanged on the session.
