- AP calls North Carolina for Trump
- Republicans close in on control for US Senate
- GBPUSD moves down to test 50% and swing area down to 1.28449
- Betting markets see Trump victory as a shoo-in now
- Reminder: Here are some of the widely-touted Trump trades
- It's looking more and more like a red sweep
- The peso signals Mexico isn't looking forward to four more years of Trump
- Georgia the next swing state to be called for Trump
- Pundits (finally) call Georgia for Trump
- ICYMI - Saudis cut oil price to Asia and US, raised to Europe
- 10 year up 16.5 basis points; highest since early July.
- Nevada exit poll highlights Trump's big improvement among hispanic voters
- UK government confirms spread of bird flu in commercial poultry
- Dollar rejoices as Trump looks to pass North Carolina test
- China state banks seen selling USD/CNY - intervention to slow yuan drop
- EURUSD moves down to test the lows from the last two weeks
- Trump win in North Carolina hints that other exit polls could include shy Trump supporters
- US dollar, yields and bitcoin moves all extend as North Carolina called for Trump
- Pundits call North Carolina for Trump
- USDCAD moves up to hourly MAs
- Exit polls released for Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona
- Trump trades continue to strengthen but here's a reminder of 2020
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0993 (vs. estimate at 7.1011)
- Pennsylvania exit poll is a mixed bag for both candidates but some bright signs for Harris
- Bitcoin is running higher
- Japan October services PMI 49.7 (preliminary was 49.3)
- USD big swings - careful out there!
- Reminder - the states to watch in the US election
- Bank of Japan minutes - BOJ will continue rate hikes if economic & price forecasts met
- Latest from Citi on US equites - "sell a Trump rally or buy a Harris dip"
- Reuters Tankan shows manufacturing index dipping in November to +5 (prior +7)
- New Zealand employment report recap - nothing to shift the RBNZ's view
- Australian Treasury official speaking - headline inflation slowing ... but
- New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate 4.8% (expected 5.0%, prior 4.6%)
As I post the probability of a Trump win looks north of around 90%. There are still key urban area counts expected in ‘blue’ areas of the swing states but it’d be surprising if Harris can snatch the win from here. The retrace moves in markets would be epic! A ‘Red sweep’ is also looking likely, but not 90% likely. The House is still up for grabs.
It would be remiss of me not mention the sliver of hope that Harris is clinging to:
Philadelphia (expect more vote counts in coming hours)
Detroit (results expected after midnight US time)
Milwaukee (don't expect full Wisconsin results until after 3am US time).
I’m not going to explain Trump’s win, but if I was going to I’d be pointing, with all ten fingers/thumbs, at inflation. Feel free to grab a finger and point it another direction in the comments, but “The economy, stupid” is a classic for a reason.
For markets the response built and built, the USD and stocks higher, bonds lower, and BTC surging.
Chinese state banks were seen in the market selling USD/CNY, in an attempt to slow the fall for the yuan.
In non-US politics news we had the minutes of the September Bank of Japan meeting. This was a placeholder meeting, the Bank had stepped back from rate hikes due to market volatility at the time. The minutes brought no surprises.
New Zealand’s Q3 jobs report was dour. Jobs fell, unemployment rose. If there was a glimmer of good news it was that the unemployment rate didn’t rise as much as expected. However, the participation rate fell, and waves of New Zealanders are leaving the country to find work elsewhere (its super easy to migrate to Australia).
