USD/JPY kicked off the new year by trading higher, to circa 157.75, early here in Asia before losing all of it and dropping back towards 157.00 as I post. USD/CHF weakened to under 0.9050. EUR, AUD, GBP, NZD all gained against the big dollar in the opening session also.

News flow was limited. Over the break we had domestic terrorism incidents in the US with mass murders in New Orleans and further casualties in Las Vegas.

Chinese equities, both mainland and Hong Kong, slid Thursday.

The only data of note today was from China, the December 2024 Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at a miss on estimates and down from November:

  • Weaker supply and demand, with production and new orders at three-month lows.
  • External demand weakened with contraction for New Export Orders
  • Consumer goods exports saw some growth
  • Employment continued to rise but remained below critical levels
  • Rising input costs
  • Contraction in output prices
  • More detail in the points above

Concerns over potential US tariff increases and broader global economic challenges loom ahead.

Despite this, the yuan trade-weighted index hit its highest since mid-October 2022. Yes, the yuan is suffering against the super-strong USD, but not as much as some other FX is.

The US S&P 500 ES futures opened for the year with a gap up but soon dropped before recovering. As I post its net a little higher on the session:

S&P 500 es 02 January 2025