- Federal Reserve speakers on Friday are Bullard, Bostic, Mester
- European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Friday. Panetta (on crypto) & de Cos also
- USD/CNH above 7.21, US dollar rising almost right across majors board
- A September European Central Bank rate hike now appears almost locked in
- 2 reasons for a Bank of Japan 'tweak' to yield curve control (YCC) at its July meeting
- Why higher central bank rates are bullish oil
- China mainland is on holiday Friday, 23 June 2023 - Hong Kong open
- Japan Jibun June preliminary Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (prior 50.6)
- The inflation data from Japan today is going to reignite speculation of BOJ policy change
- After the over 100+ point up in USDJPY overnight be on the alert for intervention comments
- Japan CPI for May, headline 3.2% y/y vs. 3.5% prior
- UK Consumer sentiment still deeply negative, but best in 17 months
- Australia preliminary PMI: Manufacturing 48.6 (prior 48.4) & Services 50.7 (prior 52.1)
- Yellen says the chance of a recession has eased but still remains a risk
- Japanese CPI data not expected to provide much clarity on potential for a July BOJ move
- Goldman Sachs says scope for Japanese Yen (JPY) intervention may be limited
- Fed's Barkin says the Bank is still a "good way away" from its 2% inflation target
- Deutsche Bank forecast Bank of England peak rate at 5.75% - more 'forceful' hikes on table
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 22 Jun: USD moves higher w/yields. Powell sees more hikes
- JP Morgan are forecasting another 75bp of Bank of England rate hikes
- Fed's Barkin says US inflation is still too high
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 23 June 2023
- S&P and NASDAQ snap three-day losing streak
There was a whiff of risk-off during the session in Asia today. Flows were into the US dollar and out of other major FX. USD/JPY was a bit of an exception, not doing much at all. Adding to the sour tone were drops for US equity index futures in Globex trade, with ES and NQ down nearly half a per cent (as I post) and retracing much of the gain they’d had on Thursday during regular trading hours.
There were no clear fresh catalysts for the moves, with some pinning the moves on continued heightened fears of more central bank hikes (yields on US 2-years sat near highs last seen in March) yet to come. The Bank of England raised its Bank rate by 0.5% on Thursday, greater than the 25bp hike that was consensus expected but, given the recent inflation and jobs data, not too much of a shock.
On the data front, we had May inflation for Japan, with core-core (the rate excluding food and energy) hitting another 40+ years high and other measures remaining high also.
Mainland China was on holiday again today (Hong Kong markets were back after the Thursday holiday). The offshore yuan weakened, with USD/CNH rising above 7.22 at one stage.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 -1.6%
China’s Shanghai Composite - out again today
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -1.7%
South Korea’s KOSPI -0.8%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -1%
USD/CNH:
