- GBP/USD forecast: Goldman Sachs predicts rise to 1.30 amid dovish outliers
- UK firms delaying new investments in China amidst slowing economy
- Goldman Sachs Asset Management sees potential dip in stocks, advises buying
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand to re-weight NZD trade-weighted index: What you need to know
- Unexpected rise in November US Core CPI could impact future rate cuts timing
- Commercial vessel in flames in the Red Sea - missile attack - Houthi territory in Yemen
- USD losing ground in Asia trade, USD/JPY back to 145.50
- North Korean hackers steal $3 Billion: An alarming trend in cybercrime targeting crypto
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1174 (vs. estimate at 7.1772)
- Australia's mid-year budget update expected to include approximately A$10bn in savings
- Australian November business confidence -9 (prior -2)
- China lifts restrictions on Australian meat imports -ends suspensions on 3 meat suppliers
- Japan data: November PPI +0.2% m/m (expected+0.2%) +0.3% y/y (expected 0.1%)
- Australian December consumer sentiment +2.7% m/m
- Chinese Communist Party leaders discuss growth targets, stimulus proposals today
- Reserve Bank of Australia Gov Bullock says don't think falling behind in inflation fight
- CitiGroup forecasts higher S&P 500 in 2024: says to brace for Increased volatility & BTD
- Australian weekly consumer confidence measure hits it highest since February
- Goldman Sachs predicts European STOXX 600 to soar with lower rates in store at the ECB
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 11 Dec: Dow leads the stocks. Bitcoin slumps. JPY tumbles.
- Oil price forecast raised to $80 per barrel for 2024, OPEC+ cuts to supply cited
- New Zealand retail sales indicator +1.6% m/m (prior -0.7%)
- Analysts expect OPEC+ to maintain supply cuts through 2024, oil to trade $70-80 range
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 12 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
It was a session of US dollar weakness across much of the majors FX board.
USD/JPY is a focus, with the US November CPI due today (the ranges for the estimates to watch are in a bullet above and are worth checking on as a reference points as explained in the post), the FOMC on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan next week (the BOJ Statement is due on the 19th, Japan time which will be on the evening of the 18th US Eastern time). Monetary policy divergence, and soon to be convergence (but not yet!), has been a key driver of this pair and with all of these events ahead traders are keenly on alert. USD/JPY fell back 70 or so points from early highs around 146.20 to circa 145.50. There was no fresh news of note, although we did get November PPI (wholesale level inflation, in a nutshell). The PPI result was, to my eyes, not enough to shove USD/JPY around, the drop today was just continuation, in a diminishing magnitude, of the volatility we have seen in the pair since the back end of last week.
USD weakness extended elsewhere, though. AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF and GP all rose against the dollar. EUR was a laggard, it hasn’t done much at all.
For AUD we had Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaking. Bullock tends to be more hawkish in her speeches and public remarks than she is in her ‘Statement’ that accompanies the RBA decision each month (this monthly meeting timetable is to be abandoned in 2024 but that's a story for another post, this one if you are interested). I’d love to attribute the strength in the AUD today to a hawkish Bullock but her comments were measured today (summary in bullet above). AUD rose against the USD alongside much else as already referred to. We did have a boost to sentiment with China lifting meat import restrictions on 3 abattoirs in Australia. We also had a poor showing for November business confidence (via the National Australia Bank Business Survey), and while conditions dipped also, they nevertheless remained at a strong level. Two consumer sentiment surveys released improved to their best levels in many months but are still showing deep pessimism.
The yuan was reasonably steady:
