- FX option expiries for 6 November at the 10am New York cut
- Japan's UA Zensen Union has lodged a claim for a 6% wage hike
- Barclays forecast an Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January rate hike (Dec prior)
- Reports that Saudi has cut its oil prices to Europe, raised for the US
- BOJ's Ueda wants more convincing that wages will keep rising
- China's national team players are reluctantly propping up the stock market
- RBA Shadow Board recommends a rate hike at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting
- Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaking Monday - answering questions
- China should and will accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds
- Fed's Cook speaking Monday on financial stability
- BOJ Gov Ueda promises YCC, negative short term rates will be kept until 2% CPI sustained
- Offshore yuan (CNH) is hitting a 3 week high
- China & Hong Kong stocks are higher Monday - Premier's weekend opening comments?
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1780 (vs. estimate at 7.2868)
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says its important to look at real rates
- Australian jobs indicator (ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads index) -3% in October, prior -0.5
- Japan October Services PMI 51.6 (prior 53.8)
- USD/JPY above 149.50 after the Bank of Japan minutes
- Australian data - Melbourne Institute Inflation (October) -0.1% m/m (prior 0)
- BOJ Minutes: sustainable & stable achievement of the price stability target not in sight
- WSJ: Tesla raises wages for German workers
- Weekend - South Korea will ban short-selling shares - takes effect today, Monday
- Weekend: ECB's Lagarde says “determined to bring inflation down to 2%" & forecasts in 2025
- U.S. Central Command confirms that an Ohio-class submarine arrived in the Middle East
- Goldman Sachs says again the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is done with rate hikes
- A big week coming up - Federal Reserve Chair Powell speech the focus (Ueda speaking also)
- Reminder - The USA switched off daylight saving time over the weekend.
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 6 November 2023
- Saudi Arabia to continue voluntary 1 million bpd output reduction in December
- Week Ahead: highlights include China trade and inflation, RBA, UK GDP
- Weekly Market Outlook (06-10 November)
- Experiment shows Artificial Intelligence making illegal (insider) trades, covering it up
- Chinese state-owned energy giant Sinopec sign a new 27-yr LNG deal with Qatar
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar sinks after non-farm payrolls miss estimates
It was a subdued day across major forex rates ahead of a week that features speaking engagements by:
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell
- European Central Bank President Lagarde
- Bank of England Governor Bailey
- and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda
Nevertheless, we did get some items of interest including:
- Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their continue voluntary 1 million bpd output reductions into December – as widely expected
- The Melbourne Institute headline monthly inflation gauge fell by 0.1% in October, the first month of falling prices in 14 months. While this data point is rarely highlighted by the RBA its not a smoking gun for a rate hike at tomorrow’s policy meeting (a +25bp rate hike is widely expected by analysts but not so much by market pricing)
- Japan's services activity (the Jibun Bank / S&P Global PMI) expanded at its slowest pace sor far this year in October. Its still in expansion, at 51.6 (from September’s 53.8) so the panic button has not yet been hit. The service sector has been the key driver of growth in Japan.
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda once again said that the BOJ will keep YCC, negative short-term rates intact until sustained achievement of 2% inflation is foreseen by the Bank
- USD/CNH hit its lowest in 3 weeks
- The US military confirmed that an Ohio-class submarine arrived in the Middle East. The location of these subs is never made public, doing so this time is clearly aimed at dissuading Iran from escalating its atrocities-by-proxy against Israel.
