- Will the US retail sales later mess up the Fed odds even more?
- Dollar holds lightly changed on the day
- Gold rally stalls as traders wait on Fed decision
- Germany September ZEW survey current conditions -84.5 vs -80.0 expected
- European indices hold higher to start the day
- What are the main events for today?
- Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European trading
- FX option expiries for 17 September 10am New York cut
- A light one on the agenda in Europe today
- The bond market stays in focus in run up to the Fed tomorrow
- New Zealand Treasury see more positive data, but no firm sign of a recovery just yet
Markets:
- AUD leads, CAD lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.24%
- US 10-year yields flat at 3.618%
- Gold down 0.29% to $2,575
- WTI crude up 0.20% to $70.23
- Bitcoin up 1.49% to $59,069
It’s been a quiet session with no major news releases. The only economic report was the German ZEW which missed expectations by a big margin.
In the markets, the mood is tentatively positive as risk assets continue to gain as we head into the FOMC decision tomorrow. The probability for a 50 bps cut stands now around 65%.
In the American session, we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production data. If we get weak readings, then the market will likely seal the 50 bps cut with a 70%+ probability. In case the data comes out strong though, it’s unlikely that we will see much change in the pricing although we should get closer to a 50/50 chance.
