- Things to look out for in today's Consumer Confidence data
- Lavrov condemns Ukraine's demands and warns West against 'playing with fire'
- UK CBI Distributive Trades -27 vs -43 prior
- Markets still leaning mostly risk on as we head deeper into the session
- UK PM Starmer warns of 'painful' October budget,
- Two Libyan oilfields shut and another at lowest output
- BofA is bulilsh on the AUD due to differentials and a weaker USD
- UBS hikes US recession odds to 25% from prior 20%
- Today's FX option expiry levels for the NY cut
- EURUSD has been following yield differentials higher
- What are the main events for today?
- Equity futures mostly green across the board this morning
- German detailed YY GDP 0.0% vs -0.1% expected
- German Consumer sentiment -22 vs -18.2 expected
- Swedish PPI YY for July -0.1 vs 0.8% prior
- BofA likes the USD lower and GBP higher
- Goldman maintains recommendation to stay long GBPCHF
- Fed officials keep door to 50bp cuts open
Markets:
- GBP leads, USD lags on the day
- European equities flat; S&P 500 futures down 0.05%
- US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 3.848%
- Gold down 0.30% to $2,510
- WTI crude down 0.57% to $76.98
- Bitcoin down 0.61% to $62,438
It was another quiet session with no market moving data releases. The only notable news was UK’s PM Starmer warning of “painful” budget in October which hints to tax rises, although he promised not to raise them for working people.
In the markets, there’s been very little movement. The most notable moves have been in the bond market where long-term Treasury yields have been rising faster than short-term ones. Although that could be just daily noise, it’s something to keep an eye on as the Fed cuts into a resilient economy (at least for now).
The focus will now switch to the American session where the labour market data in the US Consumer Confidence report will take the centre stage.
