Headlines:
- EUR/CHF sticks with gradual descend to parity
- ECB rate hike bets cool further on the week
- ECB's de Guindos: The primary target for the ECB is inflation
- Fed's Bullard: If all goes according to plan, inflation will come down
- RBA's Lowe: Not expecting a recession but there is a narrow path back to low inflation
- UK May retail sales -0.5% vs -0.7% m/m expected
- Germany June Ifo business climate index 92.3 vs 92.9 expected
- Ifo economist says worry lines in Germany economy are getting bigger
Markets:
- CHF leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.7%
- US 10-year yields up 5.5 bps to 3.125%
- Gold up 0.1% to $1,824.63
- WTI crude up 1.5% to $105.87
- Bitcoin up 1.6% to $21,142
It was a quiet session in terms of headlines mostly but we did get some notable data releases as well as some central bank commentary but neither did much to shake up the market mood.
We're seeing a fairly calmer risk tone creep in today with equities holding higher and bond yields also now picking up a little ahead of US trading. The dollar was initially weaker but is now trading more mixed as the yen falls back a little after yesterday's advance.
EUR/USD moved up from 1.0525 to 1.0555 before coming back down now to 1.0520 levels. USD/JPY moved down initially to 134.40 but have gradually climbed during the session to 135.10-20 levels at the moment. The weekly close will be one to watch to see if the pair can keep a break above the 135.00 mark.
Meanwhile, the franc continues to go from strength to strength with EUR/CHF falling to its lowest since March at 1.0060 now and looking poised for a push towards parity next.
Commodity currencies are slightly buoyed by the better risk mood with USD/CAD down 0.2% to 1.2970 and AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.6905, though the changes are hardly notable from a technical standpoint.
It looks like stocks are trying to bookend the week with gains but the pitfalls are yet to be averted completely. This week has been about recognition of recession risks and we'll have to see how the market balances that along with central bank tightening expectations in the weeks ahead.
