Headlines:
- Major currencies move back to little changed on the day
- Japan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX moves
- Latest poll sees Le Pen's faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French election
- What are the main events for today?
- ECB's Villeroy: Disinflation process is on track
- Fed's Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy further
- Fed's Barkin: I don't think forward guidance is particularly helpful right now
- France June preliminary CPI +2.1% vs +2.3% prior
- Spain June preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y expected
- Italy June preliminary CPI +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expected
- Germany June unemployment change 19k vs 15k expected
- Germany May import price index 0.0% vs vs +0.2% m/m expected
- UK Q1 final GDP +0.7% vs +0.6% q/q prelim
Markets:
- AUD leads, CHF lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
- US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 4.303%
- Gold up 0.3% to $2,333.81
- WTI crude up 0.7% to $81.42
- Bitcoin up 0.2% to $61,542
It was a more tentative session for FX, with traders seeing little appetite to move before we get to the US PCE price data later today.
We got some inflation data from France, Spain, and Italy but that failed to move the needle in the euro. The single currency is also stymied by larger option expiries on the day, layered between 1.0650 to 1.0725.
Overall, major currencies saw little appetite with dollar pairs now keeping roughly 0.1% changed across the board. USD/JPY remains one to watch, this time easing slightly during the session from 161.00 to 160.60 currently.
In the equities space, French stocks are lagging as investors sense caution ahead of the first round of the elections this weekend. That will also be a risk factor for the euro over the next two weeks. US futures are looking modestly optimistic, after having seen tech shares lead the bounce yesterday.
It's over to the US PCE price data to see what that has to offer next. And just be wary of potential month-end and quarter-end shenanigans ahead of the London fix too.
Have a great weekend, everyone.
