Headlines:
- Dollar stays pinned down alongside yields ahead of US trading
- Dollar on the backfoot with focus on the US election tomorrow
- Treasury yields checked back after change in US election odds since the weekend
- Weekly update on interest rate expectations
- Eurozone November Sentix investor confidence -12.8 vs -12.5 expected
- Eurozone October final manufacturing PMI 46.0 vs 45.9 prelim
- Germany October final manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs 42.6 prelim
- France October final manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs 44.5 prelim
- Italy October manufacturing PMI 46.9 vs 48.6 expected
- Spain October manufacturing PMI 54.5 vs 53.1 expected
- China are reportedly reviewing a bill to raise local government debt ceilings
Markets:
- JPY leads, USD lags on the day
- European equities lightly higher; S&P 500 futures flat
- US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 4.29%
- Gold up 0.2% to $2,740.83
- WTI crude up 3.0% to $71.57
- Bitcoin down 0.5% to $68,855
As we get the new week underway, the focus in markets is all about the US election. And the news since the weekend, at least according to the pollsters, is that Harris has closed the gap to Trump to make it a tight race going into tomorrow.
And that weighed on the dollar early at the open today, with the greenback starting the day with a notable gap lower across the board.
The drop continued in Asia before settling down for most of European trading. But as we slowly inch closer to US trading, the greenback is starting to feel the pinch again as we await Wall Street to come in.
USD/JPY is weighed down to 151.75 now, down 0.8% on the day after having been down around 152.00 for most of European morning trade. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 1.0900 and USD/CHF also down 0.8% to 0.8630 currently.
The antipodeans are also taking advantage even as risk trades are more tentative, with AUD/USD up 0.6% to 0.6600 and NZD/USD up 0.5% to 0.5990 at the moment.
The spotlight on the US election is casting a large shadow over broader markets as well, with Treasury yields marked sharply lower today. 10-year yields are down some 9 bps to 4.29% after what looked like a strong breakout on Friday. A taste of the kind of volatility we can expect in the sessions ahead when reviewing the election results.
In the equities space though, the overall mood is more tepid. US futures were a touch higher earlier as tech shares gave it a go. But things are more flatfooted now with investors taking a step back to reassess the conditions this week.
We're in the final countdown stretch now.
