Headlines:
- It's election day!
- ECB's de Guindos: We will start with QT sooner or later, but for sure in 2023
- BOE's Pill: We are not going to move at a pre-defined pace at every meeting
- US October NFIB small business optimism index 91.3 vs 92.1 prior
- Eurozone September retail sales +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected
Markets:
- JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
- US 10-year yields flat at 4.213%
- Gold down 0.2% to $1,671.63
- WTI crude down 1.1% to $89.76
- Bitcoin down 4.8% to $19,701
The day started with some drama from the crypto space but turned quiet in Europe as markets get stuck in on the new week, awaiting the US midterms and the inflation data later on Thursday.
There wasn't much to work with, though equities recovered from early losses but the overall mood remains rather tepid as we look towards the Wall Street open later. S&P 500 futures rebounded from a 0.4% drop to be slightly higher now but there is still a lack of appetite, as also reflected by the bond market where Treasury yields are flattish.
The dollar was lightly higher earlier on and maintained that slight advance throughout, with nothing to really shout about amid a further technical consolidation. EUR/USD is down 0.2% just below parity while GBP/USD is back below 1.1500 as buyers and sellers continue to do battle in no man's land since the end of last week.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down slightly to 146.40 from around 146.90 earlier as the swingy mood continues and AUD/USD is flattish around 0.6475 at the moment.
The focus today will be on the US midterms but don't expect a quick end to proceedings as the battle for Congress control is likely to take almost a week to settle and with regards to the Senate, we might even have to wait until a month if Georgia goes to another run-off.
