Headlines:
- Aussie thrown a bit of a curveball via inflation data today
- Japan finance minister says exchange rate should move stably
- ECB's de Guindos: July rate hike is set
- ECB's Centeno: Inflation is easing as quickly as it went up
- ECB's Muller: Need to look at the data for rate hike beyond July
- ECB's Vujčić: There is a good chance of a September rate hike
- ECB's Vasle: We need to keep tightening policy at our next meeting
- Italy June preliminary CPI +6.4% vs +6.8% y/y expected
- France June consumer confidence 85 vs 83 prior
- Germany July GfK consumer confidence -25.4 vs -23.0 expected
- Eurozone May M3 money supply +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y expected
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 23 June +3.0% vs +0.5% prior
Markets:
- USD leads, NZD lags on the day
- European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
- US 10-year yields down 2.9 bps to 3.738%
- Gold down 0.4% to $1,906.01
- WTI crude flat at $67.73
- Bitcoin down 1.1% to $30,335
There weren't much meaningful headlines on the session but there were some interesting developments to take note of at least.
The yen continues to stay on the softer side with USD/JPY above 144.00 and that is still prompting verbal intervention by Japanese officials.
Meanwhile, there were some slightly mixed messaging by the ECB (the first case this week) with Centeno casting doubts over a September rate hike. Other officials were either on the fence or maintained a more hawkish view but it is a small glimpse that perhaps we are reaching a point where there might be more differing views in the central bank.
A drop in Italian inflation is also a reason for slightly lower bond yields on the day, though Treasury yields have looked heavy since Asia trading in any case.
The dollar is holding steady and mostly firmer across the board, with the big gains mostly against the antipodeans today. That owes much to a weaker aussie after a softer Australia monthly CPI data here. AUD/USD is down 0.7% to 0.6635 but the kiwi is the one bearing the brunt of today's selling, with NZD/USD down 1.2% to 0.6090 currently.
