Headlines:
- A catch up to central banks as we get into the second-half of the year
- Oil jumps as Saudi Arabia extends voluntary output cuts for another month
- UK June final manufacturing PMI 46.5 vs 46.2 prelim
- Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI 43.4 vs 43.6 prelim
- Switzerland June CPI +1.7% vs +1.8% y/y expected
- SNB total sight deposits w.e. 30 June CHF 491.9 bn vs CHF 508.0 bn prior
- UBS ups ECB terminal rate forecast to 4% as well
- Morgan Stanley bumps up ECB terminal rate forecast to 4% from 3.75% previously
Markets:
- NZD leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures flat
- US 10-year yields up 3.4 bps to 3.852%
- Gold down 0.4% to $1,912.24
- WTI crude up 1.0% to $71.31
- Bitcoin up 0.9% to $30,649
It is a brand new week, month, quarter, and half-year for markets. But things are starting off with a calmer mood for the most part.
Instead, the notable headline came from the oil market as Saudi Arabia says that it will extend output cuts for one more month while Russia is also pulling back on oil exports by 500k bpd. That resulted in a spike in oil prices, with WTI crude running up from $70.30 to a high of $71.72 before keeping around $71.31 currently.
Meanwhile, the dollar is steady across the board, holding light gains as it covers back some losses from Friday. USD/JPY continues to tip toe towards the 145.00 mark but traders are still cautious of intervention risks by Japan.
EUR/USD is sitting just below 1.0900 while GBP/USD did drop to a low of 1.2660 before holding around 1.2675 currently, down 0.2% on the day.
There wasn't much for major currencies to work with, as equities are lightly changed as well. US futures are holding flattish mostly while European indices are seeing just very minor gains, hoping to build on the optimism from the latter stages of last week.
In the bond market, Treasury yields are also up against a key technical test so there is that to watch out for.
