Headlines:
- Dollar sluggish as lower yields weigh on the session
- Welcome to Fed week
- ECB's Centeno says should start interest rate cuts sooner rather than later
- ECB's Kažimír says rate cut in June is more probable than in April
- ECB's de Guindos: We will cut interest rates when we are sure of meeting 2% inflation goal
- SNB total sight deposits w.e. 26 January CHF 472.2 bn vs CHF 473.4 bn prior
- UK public inflation expectations declined in November and December last year
- Bank models say dollar selling the flavour for this month-end
Markets:
- AUD and NZD lead, EUR lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
- US 10-year yields down 5.3 bps to 4.106%
- Gold up 0.5% to $2,029.13
- WTI crude down 0.2% to $77.95
- Bitcoin up 0.4% to $42,174
It was a quiet session in terms of headlines in Europe as we get things going on Fed week.
Oil and gold were early movers amid Middle East tensions over the weekend. However, the former has erased its opening gap higher and even trading lower on the day now. WTI crude is just under $78 after failing to get above its 100-day moving average of $79.39.
In FX, the dollar was more sluggish as lower bond yields are seen weighing. USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 147.85 and USD/CHF down 0.3% to 0.8620 on the day. The commodity currencies are also benefiting with USD/CAD down 0.2% to 1.3425 and AUD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6605 currently.
The euro was the laggard though amid some remarks by ECB policymakers talking about rate cuts "sooner rather than later". That being said, they were more so alluding to a move in June rather than in April.
However, the case of he says, she says continues as markets are not buying in and chose to fully price in a 25 bps rate cut for April instead. That helped to see EUR/USD push lower from 1.0840 to 1.0815 during the session.
In the equities space, the mood is more tentative as we gear towards the Fed later in the week. Month-end flows are also a consideration, so there's that to be mindful of in the days ahead.