Headlines:
- BOE raises bank rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, as expected
- BOE's Bailey: I will not judge what the path of rates will be
- BOE's Bailey: We expect food price inflation to fall gradually this year
- Just a minor shift in BOE rates pricing right after the decision
- Italy reportedly struggle to broker deal in order to bring down prices of essential goods
- ECB's Panetta: It is too early to commit now on what to do in September
- Eurozone July final services PMI 50.9 vs 51.1 prelim
- Eurozone June PPI -0.4% vs -0.2% m/m expected
- Germany June trade balance €18.7 billion vs €15.0 billion expected
- UK July final services PMI 51.5 vs 51.5 prelim
- US July Challenger layoffs 23.70k vs 40.71k prior
Markets:
- JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
- US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.138%
- Gold up 0.1% to $1,934.61
- WTI crude down 0.2% to $79.30
- Bitcoin flat at $29,121
The pound was the focus of the session as the BOE took center stage and they delivered as expected, a 25 bps rate hike. There were some quarters of the market anticipating a 50 bps move but at the balance, this was as per what most anticipated.
The odds for a 50 bps move coming into the decision was pinned at roughly 32% though, so that saw a bit of light selling after. But the BOE kept the door open for a September move and that didn't shift the rates pricing all too much. GBP/USD fell from 1.2660 to 1.2625 before recovering to 1.2660-70 levels after.
But as Bailey mentioned that there was no case for a 50 bps rate hike today, the pound slipped a little more with GBP/USD now down to 1.2645 on the day.
Elsewhere, the dollar kept steadier for the most part but we did see some selling in USD/JPY after the pair hit a high of 143.90 late in Asia. It fell to 142.75 before keeping around 142.90 currently.
In the equities space, the market mood was calmer as we moved towards European trading but that worsened at the open and stocks are still holding lower now ahead of US trading. In the bond market, yields continue to hold higher with 10-year Treasury yields keeping at the highest levels since November last year near 4.14% after yesterday's turnaround and ahead of the NFP tomorrow.
