Headlines:
- UK November CPI +3.9% vs +4.4% y/y expected
- First BOE rate cut now priced in for May next year
- Sterling falls as UK CPI data vindicates market posturing on rate cuts
- ECB's Nagel offers warning to traders betting on impending rate cuts
- Germany January GfK consumer sentiment -25.1 vs -27.0 expected
- Germany November PPI -0.5% vs -0.3% m/m expected
- Eurozone October current account balance €34.0 billion vs €31.2 billion prior
Markets:
- NZD leads, GBP lags on the day
- European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
- US 10-year yields down 4.1 bps to 3.880%
- Gold down 0.3% to $2,033.31
- WTI crude up 1.4% to $74.95
- Bitcoin up 1.0% to $42,923
The main draw in European trading today was the UK CPI data release and it delivered some decent action at least on the session. The report pointed to a much softer than anticipated set of inflation numbers in the UK in November, vindicating the market's judgment on quicker rate cuts.
The odds of a BOE rate cut in May were ~65% before the data but now traders have fully priced in such a move, with a potential earlier rate cut in March being a coin flip. That comes despite all the pushback by the BOE last week.
The pound fell as a result with GBP/USD dropping from 1.2710 to 1.2645 before keeping thereabouts at the moment. The dollar was steadier throughout, keeping more mixed but maintaining slight gains against European currencies mostly.
EUR/USD is down 0.4% to 1.0935 while USD/CHF is up 0.4% to 0.8645 currently, both at the highs for the day. USD/JPY is a touch lower, down 0.2% to 143.50 levels as bond yields are weighed down after the UK CPI data.
In the equities space, you would figure risk trades would be ripping but that isn't so much so the case today. Instead, market players appear to be starting to take the time off as stocks are lacking much enthusiasm today. European indices started off with minor gains but are now little changed mostly outside of the UK FTSE 100 while US futures are down slightly.
