Headlines:
- Sterling the main mover in the FX space on the session
- UK September CPI +1.7% vs +1.9% y/y expected
- The gold train looks to march on
- This catalyst could trigger a huge selloff in gold
- Gold and Silver: A Correlated Duo
- Japan's largest union group Rengo reportedly eyes wage hike of 5% or more in 2025
- BOJ's Adachi says no specific timeline on when to raise rates again
- Italy September final CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% y/y prelim
- China reaffirms it will not renounce the use of force over Taiwan
Markets:
- EUR and USD lead, GBP lags on the day
- European equities lower, UK stocks up; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
- US 10-year yields down 2.8 bps to 4.010%
- Gold up 0.5% to $2,675.48
- WTI crude down 0.4% to $70.29
- Bitcoin up 2.0% to $67,830
The main focus of the session was on the UK CPI report and it came in softer than expected.
The details also showed slowing momentum in core prices and also services inflation, rebuffing expectations for a rate cut by the BOE next month.
It wasn't too much though, with the OIS market already having implied a ~80% probability of a 25 bps move before the data. After, that was marked up to ~91% as it is currently.
In turn, the pound fell with GBP/USD sliding from 1.3070 to a low of 1.2983 during the session. The pair is holding on to the 1.3000 level though on the daily chart, seen at around 1.3015 now - down 0.4% on the day. EUR/GBP also pushed higher and is up 0.4% to 0.8365 currently.
Besides that, there wasn't too much to work with for broader markets. The dollar remains steady across the board with EUR/USD keeping in a narrow range just under 1.0900. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping little changed as well around 149.20-30 levels after recovering from the lows in Asia.
The antipodeans are on the softer side with some slight pressure on the Chinese yuan also still persisting. AUD/USD is one to watch as it flirts with its 100-day moving average of 0.6693 on the day.
In other markets, UK stocks are up after the softer inflation numbers but European indices elsewhere are lower but at least off earlier lows. French stocks are the laggard with the CAC 40 down 0.6%, marked down by budget worries.
As for the bond market, yields are looking heavier across the board with the UK leading the way. 10-year Treasury yields nearing 4% is something to keep an eye out for as well.
In the commodities space, gold continues to impress on the week as it closes in on fresh record highs. The precious metal touched $2,682 earlier, just a tad shy of last month's record of $2,685.
